The Iowa State Cyclones take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the 2026 Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City, Missouri, on Thursday, March 12. Tip-off is set for 12:30 p.m. ET on ESPN Networks.
Iowa State is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -245. Texas Tech, meanwhile, enters as a +5.5 underdog and is +200 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 143.5 total points.
Here’s my Iowa State vs. Texas Tech prediction and college basketball picks for Thursday, March 12.
Iowa State vs Texas Tech Prediction, Picks
My Pick: Over 142.5 (Play to 145)
My Iowa State vs Texas Tech best bet is on both teams to go over the total. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Iowa State vs Texas Tech Odds, Spread, and Total
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | -245 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
- Iowa State vs Texas Tech Spread: Iowa State -5.5
- Iowa State vs Texas Tech Over/Under: 143.5 Points
- Iowa State vs Texas Tech Moneyline: Iowa State -245, Texas Tech +200
Iowa State vs Texas Tech Expert Big 12 Tournament Pick for Thursday
Iowa State Cyclones Preview
Iowa State has aspirations of a deep run in both the Big 12 and NCAA Tournaments this month. With that being the case, the Cyclones definitely didn't overlook Arizona State yesterday.
The Clones raced out to a double-digit lead before you could blink an eye and led by 29 points at the half. Milan Momcilovic scored 21, and Joshua Jefferson put up a double-double with 20 points and 12 rebounds.
When all was said and done, Iowa State shot 40% from deep and suffocated Arizona State in the painted area.
The defense contested everything while forcing an incredible 23 turnovers to just six Arizona State assists in Sun Devil head coach Bobby Hurley's last game in Tempe.
Texas Tech Red Raiders Preview
Texas Tech has adjusted to life without JT Toppin, but it enters the Big 12 Tournament on a two-game losing streak against TCU and BYU.
While safely in the field themselves, the Red Raiders aren't nearly as dominant on either end of the floor without Toppin, who led the team in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots.
His physicality won't be replaced, so the top 3-point shooting team in the conference is going to have to rely on outside shooting to have success the rest of the way.
How To Bet My Iowa State vs Texas Tech Expert NCAAB Pick
This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 5.5-point favorite with the over/under set at 142.5. I want the over here.
Both of these teams are going to let it rip from deep, and both have shooters who can score from the logo.
Christian Anderson and Donovan Atwell have each buried over 100 triples for Texas Tech, which, as a team, has made 10 or more 3s in five straight games since Toppin was sidelined for the season.
There's a concerted effort from the Red Raiders to space the floor and shoot it from deep. In fact, half of their shots are launched from beyond the arc.
I'm not convinced Tech will be able to contain Jefferson in the post, and I imagine we'll see paint touches and easy looks for him and Blake Buchanan.
Jefferson can also step out and hit the 3-ball, and he gets to the line a ton, having made more foul shots than anyone else on the team has even attempted.
The Cyclones allowed 45 first-half points in the first meeting and had several points left on the floor themselves. Iowa State forced 15 turnovers but didn’t convert as many of those opportunities as you'd expect.
Poor shooting limited ISU's offensive output, and I fully expect these guys to be locked in, looking to avenge the embarrassing home loss to TTU two weeks ago.
I'll be very interested to see how the end of the game goes, especially if Iowa State is winning by the projected 6-8 points late.
The Cyclones are a shockingly poor free-throw shooting team, and not hitting shots from the stripe could keep the door open for Tech to make a late-game run.
Hitting a shot here or there, coupled with missed foul shots, can make late-game fouling go on for an eternity. That could very well happen here.
Whether it plays out that way or not, I like both teams to make shots in this one. This game should finish over the total, which I expect to close at 146 or so.
My Pick: Over 142.5 (Play to 145)
