The Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Duke Blue Devils at the Madison Square Garden in New York. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Duke is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -450. The total is set at 156 points.
Here are my Illinois vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for February 22, 2025.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Duke Blue Devils Prediction, Picks
- Pick: Over 154.5 (Play to 158)
My Illinois vs. Duke best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Illinois vs. Duke Odds, Betting Lines, Spread
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | +340 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
- Illinois vs. Duke spread: Duke -9.5, Illinois +9.5
- Illinois vs. Duke over/under: 156.5
- Illinois vs. Duke moneyline: Duke ML -450, Illinois ML +340
Illinois vs. Duke NCAAB Preview
Illinois Fighting Illini: Fighting Illnesses
The roller coaster ride continues for Illinois fans. What began as a season overflowing with optimism has gone south in Big Ten play, with the Illini having lost seven of their last 12 games.
It’s far from the end of the world, but for a team and fanbase with eyes on contending for a Big Ten title, January and February have been rocky.
The bad news continued this week when it was announced that freshman center Morez Johnson Jr. would be out indefinitely with a broken wrist.
Johnson, a physical rebounder and emphatic dunker, was really coming into his own since entering the starting lineup on Jan. 23, and his absence leaves a considerable hole in the paint.
Plenty of talent remains, led by potential NBA lottery pick Kasparas Jakucionis. However, the health of the rest of the roster is a question in itself.
Coach Brad Underwood had his team skip the handshake line after losing at Wisconsin on Tuesday, later informing the media that it was due to sickness spread among his team. Possibly related: Big man Tomislav Ivisic had mono at the end of January, and Tre White recently missed four games.
When they’re right, the Illini play beautiful five-out offense built around ball screens with Jakucionis and Ivisic. Both players possess terrific passing vision, willingly punishing opponents who overhelp on the primary action.
Freshman Will Riley has become a strong playmaking option in his own right, using his height (6-foot-8) to capably feed teammates over the top of opponents.
Pace and space sound great on paper, but with nearly every Illini shooter in a pronounced shooting slump during league play, the offense has sputtered.
Combined, Riley, Kylan Boswell, White and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn are a gruesome 49-for-199 (24.6%) from beyond the arc in Big Ten games.
Ben Humrichous arrived with a reputation as a lethal marksman, but he's shooting just 32% in conference play.
Only role player Jake Davis is shooting above 33% from deep against Big Ten opponents, and he's generally a liability on defense.
Duke Blue Devils: Continuing to Roll
We interrupt your regularly scheduled “Duke eviscerating the ACC” programming for a rare late-February non-conference game!
The Blue Devils could see the writing on the wall with most of their league brethren, so they sought to find a challenge elsewhere as March approaches. They’ll head to “Cameron North,” Duke fans’ affectionate nickname for Madison Square Garden.
There, the Blue Devils will test their elite defense against the best offense it's seen since hosting Auburn to start December (per KenPom ranking).
With the ultra-disruptive Cooper Flagg leading the way, the Blue Devils lead the entire country in 2-point percentage defense. They use their ridiculous positional size – they're the tallest team in the country, per KenPom’s average height – to switch liberally and smother opposing guards.
Flagg is obviously more than just a defender. The overwhelming favorite to be the first pick in the NBA draft in late June, Flagg has become an offensive fireball in league play after battling through some shooting woes in the non-conference.
That's helped him vault to the top of the National Player of the Year race, narrowly edging Auburn star Johni Broome currently.
With Flagg flying high and Kon Knueppel, Tyrese Proctor and Sion James all playing efficient basketball in the backcourt, Duke has skyrocketed to the No. 2 spot in KenPom’s offensive rankings.
The Blue Devils have been utterly unstoppable in ACC play, tallying a ridiculous 1.27 points per possession.
A seemingly innocuous injury could impact the Blue Devils on both ends, though. Sixth man Maliq Brown is a hyper-versatile defender capable of guarding all five positions, and his passing and offensive rebounding help bolster the already-potent Blue Devil attack.
He's out with a dislocated shoulder, perhaps leaving some slight vulnerability in the seemingly impervious Duke armor.
Illinois vs. Duke Picks, Best Bet
Betting a side on Illinois games has been a fool’s errand lately. The banged-up Illini have simply been too inconsistent to get a true read on, and their personnel question marks – who all was sick? And are they still? – make it impossible to bet their side.
I have a heavy lean to the Blue Devils, as the bigger and more talented squad could run away with this one if Illinois is still collectively under the weather.
Instead, I'm going to take the over here. In a game that lacks the true stakes of a conference tilt, I expect both coaches to loosen the reins and let their teams get after it on national TV.
Tempo-wise, both teams are willing to run in transition. Plus, I expect the “big game” feel out of this one at such a hoops landmark. That should lead to a back-and-forth seesaw of a game, with plenty of quick possessions and early-in-the-shot-clock buckets.
The final key factor is the absence of Johnson (Illinois) and Brown (Duke). Without those key big men, both teams will be playing more small ball, increasing the space on the court and allowing for an uptick in pace.
Considering the situational factors around the game and the notable injuries to key frontcourt players, I would bet this up to 158 points.
