The Dayton Flyers take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in Lahaina, Hawaii, as part of the Maui Invitational. Tip-off is set for 11:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Tar Heels are favored by 9 points on the spread with a moneyline of -410. The total is set at 155 points.
Here’s my Dayton vs. UNC predictions and college basketball picks for November 25, 2024.
Dayton vs UNC Prediction
My Pick: Over 154.5
My Dayton vs UNC best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Dayton vs UNC Odds, Spread, Pick
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -112 | 155 -110 / -110 | +320 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -108 | 155 -110 / -110 | -410 |
- Dayton vs UNC spread: UNC -9
- Dayton vs UNC over/under: 155 points
- Dayton vs UNC moneyline: UNC -410, Dayton +320
- Dayton vs UNC best bet: Over 154.5
Dayton vs UNC NCAAB Betting Preview
The Flyers entered the 2024-25 season with a lot of uncertainty. It’s not easy to replace star big man DaRon Holmes II, so head coach Anthony Grant went into the portal to add Zed Key from Ohio State to help stabilize the frontcourt and Posh Alexander from Butler to improve the backcourt.
The Flyers are 5-0 and have their first actual season test of the season against the Tar Heels. It’s a great battle of experienced rosters, but the question remains: How will Grant handle the Flyers' limited bench?
I fear the lack of depth will be a problem for Dayton here. Despite having a respectable eight-man rotation, it gets a bit thin after its first six.
Grant’s style consists of a ton of ball movement. The Flyers lost Kobe Elvis and Koby Brea, and those were two critical 3-point shooters on the team last year.
I’d expect most of their offensive success to come inside, as the lack of shooting could hurt them against a talented Heels team.
Defensively, expect Dayton to force UNC into difficult shots from the mid-range and beyond the arc.
It might be risky daring the Heels to beat you from deep, and I’m not sure if I trust Dayton's shooters to keep up in a high-flying offensive slugfest.
The Flyers are a good basketball team that will not foul often, but I’m not sure they are ready for the step-up in competition.
UNC Basketball
RJ Davis is not only one of the best college basketball players in the country, but he was a critical returning piece for the Heels. We could be talking about a completely different outlook for the Heels in 2024-25, but Davis is a substantial talent who could carry a team to a Final Four.
The Heels have one of the best backcourt trios in the ACC, and one of the best in the country. It’s led by Davis, Seth Trimble and Elliot Cadeau.
Like the Flyers, they lost a critical big man down low in Armando Bacot, whose minutes will be replaced by Jalen Washington. Washington showed flashes last season that he is more than capable of filling that role, so I'm anxious to see how much growth we see from him moving forward.
You can expect a ton of aggression on offense from the Heels, as they generate many of their points inside the arc and at the free-throw line. They are shooting 82% from the stripe early on, so they should be one of the best teams in the nation in that category.
Cade Tyson will contribute from deep after coming over from Belmont. He’s only shooting 31% from 3-point land thus far, but he hit a ridiculous 47% from deep last season.
There is a ton of firepower on the Heels, who will outshine the Flyers with their talent.
Dayton vs UNC Betting Analysis
Let’s start by breaking down these two offensive styles.
First, the Flyers will try to attack the Heels inside, and I’d expect a lot of kick outs and shots from the outside after penetrating in the paint. The problem is that the Flyers are shooting 30% from 3 thus far and take a ton of 3s per game.
With a lack of 3-point success, that is an area that the Heels can expose the Flyers in. The backcourt trio of Davis, Trimble and Cadeau is a lethal group that can make you pay from deep.
Tyson has been cold this season, but he is a legitimate threat to get hot from deep at any moment. His early-season woes are bound to turn around.
The Flyers will deny you down low but let you take shots from the mid-range and beyond the arc. That is a daring proposition going up against North Carolina.
The Heels do not rely on the triple, but due to the Flyers’ defensive style, I expect them to get more open looks from there. They also do not turn the ball over and shoot a lot of free throws.
Defensively, the Heels do not force turnovers, and there are still concerns down low without Bacot. The Flyers should be able to find plenty of open-shot opportunities utilizing their excellent ball movement.
Neither team looks to run a track-meet, but the matchup between both offenses suggests that there is going to be plenty of open looks to go around. Both teams are top-50 in adjusted offensive efficiency, too.
It’s a high number, but I really want to target the over here for all of the reasons I mentioned above. The Flyers' ball movement should allow many open looks, and the Heels will take advantage of the Flyers’ lack of urgency to defend the perimeter.
A lot of clean basketball is expected on both sides, and it will reflect on the scoreboard.
Take this late-night over to the bank.
Pick: Over 154.5
