I’ve had a terrible year of gambling.
After struggling with college basketball for so long, I decided it was time to throw out my old system and try a new one. Adapt or die, as they say.
So, I spent the Summer trying to learn more about the numbers.
The result of countless hours of research and self-teaching? The Action Network’s own set of college basketball power ratings, and a simple score prediction model we can apply to any game of the 2025-26 season.
I’ll be updating this article daily with our projected scores. Feel free to bookmark this page and revisit while handicapping.
A couple of essential things to note:
- This project is far from complete. I’ll be spending countless more hours tweaking the input data and prediction equation.
- Home-court advantage has been adjusted for, and I have filtered that out for games on neutral courts.
- We’re still working on how to incorporate injury adjustments into the daily projections. For now, all of these projections are under the assumption that both teams are at full strength, so please keep injury reports in mind.
- It seems that the best cut-off point to place a wager is a three-to-four-point difference between our projection and the market. However, you can also use these projections as an extra resource for your own handicapping, rather than blindly tailing any "edge" we find.
- If you ever have questions about a projection, feel free to hit me up on Twitter: @tannerstruth.
Also, while I’ll mostly update the numbers each day, if there are games that intrigue me and show value, I’ll include some matchup news and notes at the end.
Best of luck this season, everyone!
Updates
No updates for this mini Thursday slate.
