I’ve had a terrible year of gambling.
After struggling with college basketball for so many months, I decided it was time to throw out my old system and try on a new one. Adapt or die, as they say.
So, I spent the Summer trying to learn more about the numbers.
The result of countless hours of research and self-teaching? The Action Network’s own set of college basketball power ratings, and a simple score prediction model we can apply to any game of the 2025-26 season.
I’ll be updating this article daily with our projected scores. Feel free to bookmark this page and revisit while handicapping.
A couple of essential things to note:
- This project is far from complete. I’ll be spending countless more hours tweaking the input data and prediction equation.
- Home-court advantage has been adjusted for, and I have filtered that out for games on neutral courts.
- We’re still working on how to incorporate injury adjustments into the daily projections. For now, all of these projections are under the assumption that both teams are at full strength, so please keep injury reports in mind.
Also, while I’ll mostly be just updating the numbers each day, if there are games that intrigue me and show value, I’ll provide some matchup news and notes at the end.
Best of luck this season, everyone!
Updates
Maryland was a disgusting pick and wasn't even close to getting home. However, shout out to Scott Cross and the Troy Trojans.
I added two more columns for the difference between our projections and the market, for both spread and total.
Interesting tidbit, and something I'll have to monitor: Underdogs that I projected two or more points off market went 6-4 ATS yesterday, but favorites that I projected two or more points off went 1-8 (yikes!). It could be small-sample-size noise — and I don't think two points is a large enough cutoff to suggest a play — but I also think it might mean I'm a tad off in scaling the model in the early season. I've adjusted it for Saturday's slate and will continue to monitor results, sharing the full results once I have a larger sample size.
College Basketball Projections for Friday, November 7
NJIT vs Fairfield Projection, Pick
- Market Odds: Fairfield -5.5
- Our Projection: NJIT -0.34
It's worth noting that the Highlanders are also EvanMiya's most significant projected edge today — he has them as 2.7-point favorites.
As I mentioned in my America East Season Preview piece for Mid-Major Madness, I think the Highlanders could be half-decent on the defensive end this season. However, it was the offense that shone in their season-opening road win over Fordham, with freshman David Bolden dropping a surprising 18 points, alongside seven rebounds, three assists, and three steals.
NJIT was lucky to win that game, shooting 12-for-22 (55%) from 3, while the Rams shot 4-for-24 (17%). However, the Highlanders upgraded significantly in the shooting department in the offseason, and I think they could piece together a decent spread PNR offense.
Fairfield hung around with Penn State in its season-opening game, but that might say more about Penn State than the Stags. The frontcourt, interior defense, and rim protection are still relatively weak, and they were a dreadful ball-screen coverage squad last season (.99 PPP allowed, fourth percentile) — both issues could rear their ugly head against NJIT's downhill PNR attack.
Fairfield also runs a ball-screen-centric offense, which could be a problem against NJIT, given Grant Billmeiers' dribble-denial defense was very effective against the PNR last season (.72 PPP allowed, 82nd percentile), and (as mentioned) the Highlanders have upgraded defensively.
Roster continuity is significant in the early season, and it's worth noting that NJIT returns close to 60% of last season's minutes. Meanwhile, Fairfield significantly re-tooled the roster, and while the Stags have improved their overall talent level, it might take a while before the pieces fall into place.
Worth noting that Sebastian Robinson and Melvyn Ebonkoli were absent from NJIT's season-opening win. I'd appreciate it if they found the court for this one.
Also, I can't help myself from backing a gross low-major home dog.
Pick: NJIT +5.5 (-105, DraftKings)
