More Conference Tournament action kicks off on Thursday night. How lucky are we?
Read on for our College Basketball Predictions and NCAAB best bets for Thursday, March 12.
College Basketball Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 PM | |
  | 9 PM | |
  | 9:30 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
BYU vs. Houston Prediction
With Kennard Davis heating up from beyond the arc (13-for-25 from 3 over the past three games, 52%, all BYU wins), the Cougars finally have the third scorer and floor-spacer to replace Richie Saunders.
Davis’ ascension should draw defenders away from AJ Dybantsa’s isolation creation and Rob Wright’s dribble creation, freeing up lanes for those two elite on-ball creators.
In this matchup, Davis needs to hit his triples. Houston’s ball-screen blitz defense willfully puts the defense in rotation, so the Cougars give up plenty of weak-side catch-and-shoot triples.
But now that BYU has a guy who can make those, I think that opens everything up.
At the same time, Houston’s aggressive defensive structure leaves the glass open, while Keba Keita has been destroying the offensive boards lately (15 over his past three games, all BYU wins).
I’m worried about BYU’s dribble defense against the likes of Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp. But if the Cougars can make their 3s and score enough second-chance points, they can hang for 40 minutes.
Ultimately, I project BYU as only a 5.4-point underdog in this Big 12 Tournament game, meaning I’d be willing to play the Cougars at +8.5 or better, representing a minimum three-point difference between my projections and the market.
Check out all of Tanner's CBB Projections for Thursday here:
Pick: BYU +8.5 or Better
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Rutgers vs. UCLA Pick
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems:
In college basketball, teams that previously lost to an opponent by 20 or more points often respond with greater focus and motivation when facing that same team later in the season, particularly in February or March when postseason stakes rise.
These late-season rematches tend to tighten as coaches make tactical adjustments, players recall the earlier loss, and defensive effort increases.
When the spread is double digits or higher, the market frequently overestimates the gap between the programs based on the prior blowout.
As a result, the revenge-minded team often performs above expectations against the spread, making these matchups a valuable opportunity to back the underdog in a motivated spot.
When these two matched up in the regular season, the Bruins blew out the Scarlet Knights, 98-66. However, that was in LA, and we all know Mick Cronin teams don't like playing away from home — they rank 354th nationally in Haslametrics' Away From Home metric.
I smell a letdown performance from UCLA in this Big Ten Tournament affair.
Want more betting systems? Get an Action PRO subscription today with our March Madness discount:
Pick: Rutgers +11 or Better
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TCU vs. Kansas Best Bet
By Sean Paul
Neither team is looking to take many 3s.
Kansas will take more, and Peterson will if he feels less than 100%. But if he feels healthy, he's more willing to attack the hoop.
The lack of 3s should favor the Under.
Neither team plays super fast nor super slow, basically middle of the pack.
I expect an old-school defensive brawl between two well-coached teams with a defensive identity.
Check out Sean's full TCU-Kansas breakdown here:
Pick: Under 141 or Better
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