This situational spots column went 4-1 last week, and I now sit at 12-8 overall since starting this weekly piece.
We're going to address some spots that are unique in nature for the upcoming week. The regular season is winding down, with many leagues concluding the regular season this upcoming weekend. There's no better time than now to find value in teams coming into the conference tournament hot or cold, off of extended rest, in look ahead spots and more.
So, here's college basketball predictions and picks, including seven NCAAB situational spots to target.
- Last Week: 4-1 | 12-8 Overall
Duke vs. Notre Dame
Duke is coming off a huge neutral site win against the Michigan in Washington D.C. over the weekend and now it hits the road to South Bend, Indiana, to take on Notre Dame.
The Irish have had a disgusting 3-11 ACC season filled with missed opportunities and close losses. Close losses are the name of the game when you factor in this ballooned point spread and the massive sandwich spot for Duke.
The Blue Devils have 11th-ranked Virginia on deck and have had a propensity to find themselves in closer-than-expected battles with the Irish in recent years.
- 2023: 68-64 Duke victory
- 2024: 67-59 Duke victory
- 2025: 86-78 Duke victory
The spot is mitigated substantially due to the number of injuries the Irish have sustained this season. Notre Dame won't be anywhere close to full strength in this matchup (no Jalen Haralson or Markus Burton), and the Irish have had to rely on the outside shot much more frequently.
Braeden Shrewsberry and Logan Imes are going to have to hit some 3-point shots for the Irish to remain close, but Duke has given up some outside shooting at times this season.
Thus, the spot calls for a play on the Irish.
Pick: Notre Dame +17.5
Seattle vs. Pepperdine
Pepperdine has completely quit playing defense, and the results are evident.
Ed Schilling had deployed a conservative, slow-paced game plan earlier this season, which saw matchups played in the low 60s for possession count.
However, the strategy has been scrapped ever since a blowout loss against Gonzaga on January 21.
The books have been incredibly ignorant to the change, and over bettors have cashed eight straight in games involving the Waves.
The first matchup between these two this season saw the Redhawks come away with an 83-81 victory in a game that saw tons of action in the paint and 57 attempted foul shots.
Expect more of the same this time around, so I'm going to seek to bet the over and Seattle’s team total over.
Pick: Over Total Points | Seattle Team Total Over
Chicago State vs. LIU
Long Island has the best defense in the NEC and routinely plays its games in the low 60s for possession count.
The Sharks square off against Chicago State, which is going to attempt to play this game at a snail's pace. Three of the last six contests the Cougars have played have seen total possession counts in the 50s.
Expect a slower burn in this game with poor shooting from the mid-range and minimal trips to the charity stripe, as these two are in the bottom three in the NEC in offensive free-throw rate.
After winning its home finale against Central Connecticut State, I could see Chicago State putting up a real stinker offensively against LIU, and if this total does come out this high, we have to play the under.
Pick: Under Total Points
NC A&T vs. UNC Wilmington
NC A&T has one of the worst defenses in CAA, as it can't defend without fouling.
Meanwhile, UNC Wilmington is the best team in the conference and top-15 nationally in offensive free-throw rate.
I want to go back to the first meeting, where UNC Wilmington was victorious, 87-78, and the game played to 76 total possessions. UNC Wilmington didn’t shoot particularly well, but it did get to the stripe for 35 free-throw attempts.
I just don’t see a way that NC A&T can keep Patrick Wessler out of the painted area, which should result in easy looks at the rim or free throws.
Christian May and Nolan Hodge have been much more aggressive at the rim, and with all of the stressful games UNC Wilmington has played over the last three weeks, this could be a chance for the Seahawks to have a little fun at home.
I would expect UNC Wilmington to score a ton of points.
Pick: UNC Wilmington Team Total Over
Austin Peay vs. Bellarmine
The Governors will be playing to clinch the ASUN regular season championship if they fail to win on Wednesday, or they'll have wrapped it up and will have a chance to play loose and free before the conference tournament starts. This play should be a go either way, though.
Bellarmine has the worst defense in the ASUN, which is a league filled with awful units at that end of the floor.
In the first meeting just 10 days ago, Austin Peay scored 90 points on an eye-popping 1.49 points per offensive possession.
The Governors got to the foul line for 28 attempts, nailed 10 triples and saw Collin Parker and Ja’Corey Robinson shred the Knights in the painted area while winning by 20 points.
The ASUN Tournament starts March 4, with Austin Peay slated to start its run at a conference championship on March 6. I can't imagine the Governors throttle down here with so much time in between games, as it's hard to turn it off and back on again.
It's full steam ahead for what I presume to be a double-digit road win.
Pick: Austin Peay -5
NCAAB Situational Quick-Hitters
San Jose State vs. Air Force Over (Projected: 139.5)
Tuesday, Feb. 24 | 9 p.m. ET
Air Force has completely quit playing any defense, as the Flyboys have surrendered 80 points or more in nine of their last 10 games.
The game it didn’t give up 80 points? Fresno State scored 79 in a 17-point home win against Air Force.
This roster isn't one that's going to lock in on the defensive end.
Air Force is consistently void of talent, but the Flyboys do shoot a ton of 3-pointers and are averaging nine made triples per game over the last six contests.
San Jose State has the second-worst defense in the conference, and this game could see each team let it fly 30 times from deep.
Defense will be optional, and it's one I expect to be higher scoring.
Idaho (Projected: -9) vs. Northern Arizona
Thursday, Feb. 26 | 9 p.m. ET
With this being its best remaining opportunity to get a home win, we should see a max effort from Idaho against Northern Arizona, which has one win this season on the road.
In the first meeting, Idaho raced out to a 24-9 lead in the first 10 minutes and led by as many as 26 points in a dominating road win.
With Zack Davidson and Isaiah Shaw out of the fold for Northern Arizona, the Lumberjacks should get shredded in the paint and in the mid-range.
I want to bet Idaho here.
