The Arkansas Razorbacks take on the Baylor Bears in Dallas, Texas. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
In this particular matchup, the Bears are favored by -3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -148 The total is also set at 154.5.
Here’s my Arkansas vs. Baylor predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday.
Baylor vs Arkansas Odds
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -108 | 155 -110o/-110u | +130 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -112 | 155 -110o/-110u | -155 |
- Arkansas vs Baylor spread: Baylor -3.5
- Arkansas vs Baylor total: 155 over/under
- Arkansas vs Baylor moneyline: Baylor -155
- Arkansas vs Baylor best bet: Baylor -3
Betting Preview & Why to Bet the Bears
Arkansas Basketball
If you're looking for a team to epitomize the current state of college basketball, look no further than Arkansas, where former Kentucky head coach John Calipari arrives with a fully refreshed roster.
Just one contributor from last year's Hogs' team is back in Fayetteville, surrounded by three of Calipari's former Cats (DJ Wagner, Adou Thiero and Zvonimir Ivisic), plus two proven veterans with March experience.
Jonas Aidoo was good for 18 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks per 40 minutes as a role player at Tennessee last season, riding with the Vols into the Elite Eight.
The major headliner for Calipari's work in the transfer portal is former Florida Atlantic standout Johnell Davis. The versatile swingman likely could have found his way onto an NBA bench this season, but he took an NIL check and a year under Calipari's tutelage instead.
Freshman Boogie Fland will take a lot of the eyeballs as another possible one-and-done guard in the long lineage of Calipari's former pupils, yet its Davis that will really determine the floor and ceiling for the Hogs.
His ability to stuff the stat sheet — by rebounding well beyond his size — and his ability to create looks for others, on top of the dog mentality he brings to both ends of the floor, makes him a key player to watch in the SEC this season.
Baylor Basketball
The Bears were slated to start the season with a bang, facing highly-ranked Gonzaga on opening night in the late, but high profile slot after Monday Night Football.
Well, there was a bang, but it was the sound of Baylor getting absolutely smacked by the Zags, losing by 38 points. The Bears simply looked out of sorts, shooting just 14% from long range and looking positively lost on defense.
The Zags scored 1.43 points per possession, the third-highest mark allowed by Baylor this century and the Bears' worst defensive performance since 2005.
That game will feel like a black mark on this team, but in reality, it was one outing in early November in which the Bears' top four usage players were all playing their first game in a Baylor uniform.
To Scott Drew's credit, Baylor does not turn around and play a get right game against a low-major patsy. Instead, the Bears take on Calipari and the new-look Razorbacks on a neutral floor in Dallas.
Whether it's Saturday or at some point in the future, this team will play better basketball. There's too much talent and experience on this roster for things not to click at some point.
Jeremy Roach is high-level point guard, looking to elevate his game from his time at Duke. Norchad Omier was one of the key contributors to a Final Four team at Miami. The handful of freshmen Scott Drew landed in this class are poised to make a major impact, too.
Arkansas vs Baylor Betting Analysis
Since 2018, Baylor has lost just four games by 20+ points. In the following outing, the Bears are 3-1.
Similarly, since 2012, in games following a 20+ point margin from the spread, Baylor is 5-2 both SU and ATS. Looking from a wider lens, since 2019, ranked teams who lost their previous game by 27 or more points have turned around in the next game quite well, with a 10-5 record ATS and 11-4 SU.
Baylor makes for a perfect buy-low candidate here, even with a stale taste coming off the brutal loss on Monday night.
The neutral site crowd in Dallas should lean pro-Bears, making me feel a smidge better about taking Baylor on the moneyline.
