The Alabama State Hornets play the Southern Miss Golden Eagles in Hattiesburg, MS, on Thursday, December 5. Tip-off is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Southern Miss is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -220. The total is set at 149 points.
Here are my Alabama State vs. Southern Miss predictions and college basketball picks for December 5, 2024.
Alabama State vs Southern Miss Prediction
My Pick: Alabama State +1.5 (Play to PK)
My Alabama State vs Southern Miss best bet is on the Hornets spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Alabama State vs Southern Miss Odds, Lines, Pick
| Alabama St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 149 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Southern Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 149 -110o / -110u | -220 |
- Alabama State vs Southern Miss spread: Southern Miss -5.5
- Alabama State vs Southern Miss over/under: 149 points
- Alabama State vs Southern Miss moneyline: Southern Miss -220, Alabama State +180
- Alabama State vs Southern Miss best bet: Alabama State +1.5 (Play to PK)
My Alabama State vs Southern Miss College Basketball Betting Preview
Alabama State has played a brutal schedule in the early going and is coming off back-to-back beatdowns against two elite squads in Cincinnati and SMU.
Call me crazy, but I think Thursday afternoon presents a perfect bounce-back opportunity against a massive step down in competition, especially given Southern Miss is figuring out how to replace high-usage point guard Andre Curbelo following a disciplinary suspension.
With Curbelo out, Hornets point guard TJ Madlock will be the best player on the court.
Among the favorites to win SWAC Player of the Year, Madlock is a true floor general who can score, create and handle the rock without turning it over.
Backcourt mates Amarr Knox and CJ Hines have also been impressive creators and shotmakers, averaging 30 points and five assists per game combined.
The key part of this handicap is that the trio can handle the Golden Eagles’ disruptive, perimeter-oriented, press-happy defense. Despite the brutal schedule, the Hornets rank above the D-I average in PPP against press this year (.94, 62nd percentile).
You can obliterate Southern Miss on the interior if you beat the press. The Golden Eagles are tiny, ranking 340th nationally in average height and running 6-foot-7 at the five. So, their rim defense is nearly nonexistent.
While the Hornets have been shooting more this year than expected — primarily via drive-and-kicks between the guard trio — I believe they’ll begin to lean into more interior ball-screen creation as the season progresses.
They should try to leverage their frontcourt length in this matchup — the Hornets roster 6-foot-10 Jasteven Walker, 7-footer Ubong Okon and the uber-athletic 6-foot-7 Mario Andrews.
Regardless, Alabama State’s backcourt should find success pressuring the rim in transition. The Hornets love running the open court (13.7 fast-break points per game, 87th percentile), and Southern Miss allows the seventh-most fast-break points per game nationally (16.5).
The Eagles' ball-handling hasn’t looked great this year and could regress further without Curbelo, and that could allow easy run-outs for the Madlock-Knox-Hines trio.
Southern Miss should leverage its dribble hand-off sets into points against Alabama State’s shaky DHO defense (1.15 PPP allowed on those sets, ninth percentile). But the Golden Eagles are more of a ball-screen-centric offense, and the Hornets’ ball-screen coverage has been rock solid so far (.68 PPP allowed on those sets, around the 80th percentile).
Plus, I don’t know how effective the Eagles can be in the pick-and-roll without Curbelo, their highest-usage ball-screen initiator before the suspension.
I like the bounce-back spot for Alabama State, especially with Southern Miss due for a potential letdown game following a hard-earned one-point home win over Milwaukee last Saturday.
And I surprisingly love the matchup for the Hornets, who I think win outright behind advantages in the backcourt.
