Virginia vs. Texas Odds & Betting Predictions - December 4, 2025

I don’t really get this line. Virginia is the better team and has the better matchup in this spot. I was low on Texas coming into the season and nothing I’ve seen has changed that. Meanwhile, Virginia finally has an offense and they look great. The UVA offense is 25th in offensive efficiency and ranks as high as 6th in offensive shot quality. Their best trait is their elite offensive rebounding as they currently lead the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. UVA is a jump shooting team, but they consistently create second looks off misses. A jump shooting team that can get more “free” looks is always deadly. They’ll have the rebounding advantage tonight. Virginia is the 7th most efficient three point shooting team and will face a Texas defense that sits just 207th in three point percentage allowed. If their shots are falling, the Virginia offense should have a big night. The defense leaves a bit to be desired, but I’m not particularly worried about that when it comes to a Virginia team. Even with a new coach, Virginia basketball is rooted in defense, and Ryan Odom is known as a defensive minded head coach. If this UVA offense keeps operating at this level and the defense catches up, watch out for this team. Also, the defense isn’t all bad. Virginia is elite at the rim, with Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso both ranking top 10 nationally in block rate. Their guards have been rough on and off the ball, but the good news for UVA is that Texas doesn’t lean heavily on ball screen creation. Texas prefers to attack the rim, ranking as the 7th most efficient team in that area, which plays right into Virginia’s strength. Grunloh and Onyenso, both 7-footers, hold down the paint. A drop coverage defense can be vulnerable to pull-up midrange jumpers and elite guards who can shoot off the dribble or attack downhill, but Texas doesn’t really have either. If you remember last year, if Tre Johnson wasn’t taking over, Texas was brutal offensively. They brought in a few new guys, but Johnson is now in the NBA. Texas also gets a lot of their points at the free throw line, but UVA has been strong at avoiding fouling. This sets up as a battle of drop coverage defenses, and I think Virginia’s offense is far more equipped to exploit it. This will be UVA’s first true road game, which is probably why the line is sitting at +2.5, but I’ll trust Ryan Odom to have his guys ready. Our model has the fair spread at just 0.54. I’ll take Virginia to cover on the road.

CBB POD