The Minnesota Timberwolves (11-10) and Golden State Warriors (13-8) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Timberwolves are 1.5-point road favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Wolves -1.5), with the over/under set at 219.5 total points. Minnesota is a -125 favorite to win outright, while Golden State is +105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Timberwolves vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Friday, December 6.
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks
Spread
The spread for this game can be best priced at -1.5 on the Warriors side or +2 on the Timberwolves side. The Warriors are on the second night of a back-to-back after both Draymond and Steph Curry were out against the Rockets on Thursday.
I like the Wolves side here, they are starting to play better, and match up well with the Warriors. They can throw length at Curry, are an excellent rebounding team, and are playing with an increased sense of urgency.
Despite the Warriors win over the Rockets last night, even while shorthanded, the Warriors are going through a bit of a rough spell over their last five games and are a team I feel vastly overperformed early in the season and is due for some regression.
Moneyline
If I was playing the Wolves ATS, I would actually forego the moneyline. Normally I like to tack on a bit of ML exposure if I am playing a +2 because the window is so narrow to cover a spread but lose, but the price of the moneyline is on the lowest range of possibilities for a +2 line.
If you work from +2 (-110) to a ML at +105, and take the value of each half-point there, it's a no-brainer to play the spread as the more valuable line. If you see a ML at +110 or higher, then it becomes more fair.
Over/Under
The over/under is bouncing between 222.5 and 220.5 based on the various books in the market. I like this an over spot considering the volume of 3-pointers both teams take, and the strong interior presence between Draymond and Gobert.
The 3s should be flowing again in this matchup, and it becomes a shooting variance spot to determine whether they go in and over, or miss and go under.
My Pick: Timberwolves +1.5 (-120)
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Odds, Point Spread, Total, Lines
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 219.5 -110o / -110u | -122 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 219.5 -110o / -110u | +102 |
- Timberwolves vs Warriors spread: Timberwolves -1.5
- Timberwolves vs Warriors over/under: 219.5 points
- Timberwolves vs Warriors moneyline: Warriors +102, Timberwolves -122
- Timberwolves vs Warriors best bet: Timberwolves +1.5 (-120)
Timberwolves vs. Warriors NBA Friday
My favorite bet in this game is the Wolves +1.5. It represents the best value compared to any ML available, and the matchup is strong for the Wolves here.
The Warriors are coming into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back after beating the Rockets, and now the role players will be tired, Steph and Dray will be reintegrated, and the perimeter length of the Wolves provides for a good defensive shell on Curry.
I imagine McDaniels takes time on Curry, as well as Anthony Edwards. I expect the Wolves to get a bit downhill and have a strong defensive effort as well.
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Best Bets
I like getting ahead of this bet now and taking Wolves +2 right away. There is a chance both Steph and Draymond are out for a second straight game, and thus the line would move to Wolves -3. I don't want to play the total because I like the over, but if Steph is out it will drop a few points and I would be in a bad spot holding an early bet over ticket.
Timing is very important to bet, so take the Wolves now and wait on the possible over if they are activated.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +1.5
Same Game Parlay: Wolves +2, Over 220, McDaniels Over 1.5 Steals (+350)
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Betting Trends
