The Oklahoma City Thunder (1-1) and Denver Nuggets (1-1) will face off in Game 3 of their second round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Thunder are 5.5-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread (Thunder -5.5), with the over/under set at 232.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -245 favorite to win outright, while Denver is +200 to pull off the upset.
The Nuggets stole the first matchup of this series on the road, and then the Oklahoma City empire struck back in a big way in the second. Now, the series shifts to Mile High where Denver will try to regain the upper-hand in Game 3 tonight.
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks on Friday, May 9.
Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction, Picks for NBA Playoffs Game 3
My Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 3 best bet is on Denver to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Nuggets +5.5 (-105)
Thunder vs Nuggets Betting Odds for Friday, May 9
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 232.5 -110 / -110 | -245 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 232.5 -110 / -110 | +200 |
- Thunder vs. Nuggets spread: Thunder -5.5
- Thunder vs. Nuggets over/under: 232.5 total points
- Thunder vs. Nuggets moneyline: Thunder -245, Nuggets +200
- Thunder vs. Nuggets best bet:Nuggets +5.5 (-105)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Game 3 Preview
We’ve got two competing trends in this spot.
Home underdogs who won Game 1 but lost Game 2 are 3-7 after the first round since 2003, both straight up and ATS.
Teams who won by 30+ points in the previous game and scored more than 130 (a total beatdown) are 6-9 SU and ATS in the next game and 1-4 SU and ATS after the first round.
The Nuggets are 16-11 SU and ATS coming off a loss in the playoffs with Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic.
I lean Nuggets here, ATS and SU.
The Thunder are definitely better, but the Nuggets have the ability to drag games where they want them.
The Thunder hit them with a haymaker in the previous matchup, and after getting the split, the Nuggets were not kicking and screaming to get back in the game.
Homecourt advantage is almost negligible in these playoffs, but playing in altitude is an adjustment. It catches teams off guard, especially late in games.
I make this game Thunder -3. So, I’ll grab the points with the Nuggets and sprinkle the moneyline.
The total is stationed at 232.5. I make this line 236 for a regular season game, and there’s a substantial decrease in possessions and efficiency in most playoff games.
Obviously, the previous matchup flew over the total with the Thunder’s offense putting up 87 points in the first half. The series opener was lower scoring, but close and went over as well.
Game 3s in a 1-1 series are 77-58-7 (57%) to the under.
This has been the fastest series so far in the second round. Both teams want to get out and run.
The Thunder forced a ton of turnovers and points off turnovers in the first two games. If you think that continues (a totally reasonable assumption), then you should be on the Thunder team total over.
Denver likely has a few games in this series where they clean up the turnovers, and those games are likely unders. I’ll bet under 232.5 in Game 3 tonight.
Thunder vs Nuggets Game 3 Betting Predictions
Jamal Murray Over 5.5 Assists
Murray has the lowest conversion rate on his potential assists in this series, with 21 potential assists and 7 actuals.
With role players likely to shoot better at home, that’s enough to get me there since scoring will be difficult against the fleet of velociraptors the Thunder employ on the perimeter defensively.
Lu Dort Under 10.5 Points
Did you know Dort didn’t hit a single three-pointer on the road in Memphis in the first round?
Role players shoot worse on the road, and while Dort’s probably good for one or two open threes, this is a big enough gap to play the under.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points
SGA has breezed over this line in both games of this series, even in three quarters last time out.
The big key is that SGA leads the Thunder in points off turnovers (regular season and playoffs), and the Nuggets are a high-turnover rate team. He can hunt mismatches on Jamal Murray when he wants, and Christian Braun has had nothing for him.
Until this line moves up, I’m going to keep betting SGA.
Thunder vs Nuggets Best Bets for Game 3
- Nuggets +5.5 (-105)
- Under 232.5 (-110)
- Jamal Murray Over 5.5 Assists (-115)
- Lu Dort Under 10.5 Points (-110)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points (-115)
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