The Oklahoma City Thunder (14-4) and Los Angeles Lakers (11-7) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Thunder are 1.5-point favorites over the Lakers on the spread (Thunder -1.5), with the over/under set at 231.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -125 favorite to win outright, while Los Angeles is +105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Lakers vs Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Friday, November 29.
Thunder vs. Lakers Picks, NBA Prediction
Spread
While I lean toward the Thunder in this game, I'll be avoiding the spread in this one and focusing instead on the moneyline.
Moneyline
My best bet for Thunder vs. Lakers is the Oklahoma City moneyline.
Over/Under
I am passing on the total for this matchup.
My Pick: Thunder ML (-125)
Thunder vs Lakers, NBA Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 231.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 231.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
- Thunder vs Lakers spread: Thunder -1.5
- Thunder vs Lakers over/under: 231.5 points
- Thunder vs Lakers moneyline: Thunder -125, Lakers +105
- Thunder vs Lakers best bet: Thunder ML
Thunder vs. Lakers Preview
The Lakers face off against the Thunder in an extremely important game for the NBA Cup. There are a number of different tiebreaker scenarios, but each of the Lakers and the Thunder need this game to have any real hope of winning the group or advancing via the wild card.
The Thunder are coming off a narrow victory over the Stephen Curry-less Warriors but still sit at 14-4 with the best Adjusted Net Rating in the league along with the best Adjusted Defense, per Dunks & Threes. They have been lethal on both sides of the ball but they are a team that relies on their defense.
The addition of Isaiah Hartenstein has been critical since the team lost Chet Holmgren to an injury. Hartenstein has been immediately impactful and the Thunder are an incredible 12.6 points better defensively with him per 100 possessions this season, per Cleaning the Glass. It's admittedly a small sample size, but even watching the games he is stifling. Opposing teams are scoring just 0.93 points per possession against the Thunder with Hartenstein on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass. Even though the offensive on/off numbers have not popped yet, he is such an incredible screener and elite in the short roll.
This matchup, they will need Hartenstein to limit Anthony Davis on the interior. Looking at his history head-to-head against Davis, Hartenstein has performed well. In his last four games, he secured 15, 17, 11, and 13 rebounds.
The Lakers still surrender rebounds to centers. They’ve given up double-digit boards to Victor Wembanyama, Jusuf Nurkić, Nikola Jokić, and Goga Bitadze in the last week and Hartenstein is an elite rebounder. His rebounds prop is at 10.5 (+100, DraftKings) and I'll take that over.
For the Lakers, they are 11-7 but just 17th in Adjusted Net Rating (-0.3). Even though their offense is elite (115.2, sixth), the defense is abysmal (115.5, 26th). The biggest issue for the Lakers has been their transition defense. They are allowing 140.1 points per 100 plays in transition, the most in the league. OKC is not the most efficient in transition, but it gets out into transition at the sixth-highest frequency, per Cleaning the Glass. This will be a pressure point for this Lakers team.
Thunder vs. Lakers Prediction
The Lakers took 3-of-4 against the Thunder last year; however, they had a 4% swing in overall Rebound% in those matchups against Holmgren and were able to attack him on the interior with Davis. Not that Hartenstein is better than Holmgren, but he is bigger and that size can be a bit more difficult for Davis to deal with.
I think this game will be tight, but the Thunder have been the better team all season by every metric. I'll grab OKC to win the game, and with the line bouncing on who is favored I'll just take the moneyline (-105, bet365).
For an SGP, I'll take Thunder ML, Hartenstein 10+ rebounds, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 3+ Assists (a number he has hit in nine straight against the Lakers) at +210 via bet365.
Best Bet: Thunder ML (-105)
Same Game Parlay: Thunder ML, Hartenstein 10+ Rebounds, Gilgeous-Alexander 3+ Assists (+210)
Lakers vs Thunder Betting Trends
