The Houston Rockets (17-8) and Oklahoma City Thunder (19-5) will meet in the NBA Cup semifinals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Thunder are 6-point favorites over the Rockets on the spread (Thunder -5.6), with the over/under set at 215.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -250 favorite to win outright, while Houston is +205 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Rockets vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, December 14.
Rockets vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks
Spread
I can only look to the Thunder in this spot at -5.5. OKC is also seeking revenge after losing the previous meeting between these teams back on December 1.
Moneyline
If you prefer to be more conservative, the moneyline still has value if you grab it under -230, which aligns with a 5.5-point spread. ESPN Bet currently has the best price at -215.
Over/Under
This total is a pass for me. My model has a projection of 215, but the number has already been beaten down to as low as 213.5 at some books.
My Pick: Thunder -5.5 (-120)
Rockets vs. Thunder Odds, Point Spread, Total, Lines
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 215.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 215.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
- Rockets vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -6
- Rockets vs. Thunder over/under: 215.5 total points
- Rockets vs. Thunder moneyline: Rockets +205, Thunder -250
- Rockets vs. Thunder best bet: Thunder -5.5 (-120)
My Thunder vs. Rockets best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread (-5.5). But as always, be sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Rockets vs. Thunder NBA Cup Saturday
The Rockets are well ahead of schedule in their second year under head coach Ime Udoka. They finished the previous campaign with a 41-41 record while comfortably exceeding their projected win total of 31.5. This season, the bookmakers set their win total at 41.5, and given the Rockets' 17-8 start, they're in a good position to go over that number again.
What's impressive about the Rockets' success is that I'm not even sure they'll have an All-Star representative this season. They don't even have a player averaging 20 or more points. Jalen Green leads the team with 19.2 points per game, while Alperen Sengun is second with 18.8. Although both players are already in their fourth season, they're still only 22 years old.
Houston's transformation has almost entirely been on the defensive end of the court. In Udoka's first year, the Rockets improved from 29th (118.6) in efficiency to 10th (112.8). This season, only OKC (103.4) has a better Defensive Rating than Houston (105.1).
The numbers are remarkable, considering opponents shoot just 43.4% from the floor against them. With the 3-point shot revolutionizing the game of basketball in this modern era, part of Udoka's secret sauce is limiting the opposition's 3-point opportunities.
As a result, the Rockets allow the second-fewest 3-point attempts (34.6), which makes sense because their offense often isn't dominant enough to play from behind.
To compensate, the Rockets' offense focuses on high-percentage shots inside the paint and tries to beat their opponents down the floor in transition. One thing about Udoka dating back to his lone season with the Celtics is that he's more than capable of tailoring a team to its strengths.
Thus, Houston will likely continue to exceed expectations. However, given its recent history in this series against OKC, the Rockets won't be able to fly under the radar.
Even in 2022, when the Rockets finished tied for the worst record in the Western Conference, they still won two games against the Thunder. Houston has also won five of the last 10 games in this series. Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault will be well aware of the threat the Rockets can offer, and I expect that message to be part of his team talk with his players.
The Thunder are the more likely team to win in various ways, which is evident when you compare the variance of its recent wins in this series to Houston's. All five of those victories came by double digits, with an average margin of 23.6 points separating them, while Houston had just one double-digit victory and an average of 7.4.
Therefore, the Rockets have probably fewer routes to victory. While both teams this season are almost mirror images of one another defensively, OKC has a top-10 offense, which should help shift this matchup in its favor.
Rockets vs. Thunder Predictions, Best Bets
Since I've already made my case for OKC as a side, I will double down on the Thunder by using it as part of a bet365's 30% profit boost on same game parlays of three or more legs. However, I'll be a bit more conservative in this spot and use the Thunder moneyline instead of the spread to anchor my parlay.
Given that the total projects this could be more of a defensive game, I expect Oklahoma City's Isaiah Hartenstein to play a big part. Hartenstein's steals + blocks prop is set at 1.5, and he's exceeded that number in eight straight games when facing teams ranked in the bottom-third for blocks allowed.
Considering that Hartenstein has also covered this number in his last two meetings against the Rockets, he stands a good chance to create some havoc defensively in this matchup.
Hartenstein's importance could result in fewer minutes for his frontcourt teammate, Kenrich Williams. Williams has a points + rebounds + assists prop of 9.5, but has failed to cover this number in five straight games against top-10 defenses. The power forward also averaged just 15.2 minutes during that stretch, and I don't think he'll be busy enough to exceed this prop despite it being in single-digits.
Lastly, this matchup is almost tailor-made for Alex Caruso's all-around game. The Thunder guard can be highly productive in short bursts off the bench, and I like him to exceed his points, rebounds, and assists prop of 12.5. Caruso has cleared this number in five of his last six games and three previous meetings against the Rockets.
With the 30% profit boost already factored in, our odds would swell to +700 with Caruso as the final leg of our same-game parlay.
Best Bet: Thunder -5.5 (-120)
Thunder vs. Rockets Parlay Pick
- Thunder Moneyline
- Isaiah Hartenstein Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks
- Kenrich Williams Under 9.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
- Alex Caruso Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Parlay Payout: +700 (30% Profit Boost at bet365)
