The Houston Rockets (10-4) and Milwaukee Bucks (4-9) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Bucks are 3.5-point favorites over the Rockets on the spread (Bucks -3.5), with the over/under set at 224 total points. Milwaukee is a -160 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Houston is +135 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bucks vs Rockets predictions and NBA picks for Monday, November 18.
Rockets vs. Bucks Picks, Prediction
Spread
The Rockets travel to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks with the impending likely return of Damian Lillard after missing a few games in the NBA concussion protocol. Giannis has been added to the injury report as well but is listed as probable.
The spread has been moving between -2.5 and -4 on the Bucks' side, as the injury news shakes out. Shoot around will happen around 1 p.m. ET, which is when these question marks should become clear.
I'm waiting on Giannis and Dame to be cleared, likely seeing this line return to -4, and then taking the Rockets ATS and ML at plus-odds.
Moneyline
Right now the Rockets moneyline is +135, and while this is the side I want, the injury news makes it worth waiting on.
The Rockets are on the second leg of a road back to back after playing the Bulls and winning handily last night in Chicago. They had a lax fourth quarter and a short road trip, so being wary of the exhaustion factor is minimal.
This Rockets team fights hard and is incredibly well coached, two things we struggle to say for the Milwaukee side.
Over/Under
The over/under opened right around 220, and has steadily increased to 224 since then.
This shows me Dame is likely going to be active and the betting market is starting to price that in. He is a sniper from deep, and a traffic cone on the defensive end. Lillard is one of the NBA's biggest boosts to overs as an individual player.
My Pick: Rockets ML (+135)
Rockets vs. Bucks Odds
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 224 -110 / -110 | +135 |
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 224 -110 / -110 | -160 |
- Rockets vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -3.5
- Rockets vs. Bucks over/under: 224 points
- Rockets vs. Bucks moneyline: Bucks -160, Rockets +135
Rockets vs. Bucks Preview
The Rockets are on the second leg of a road back to back after beating the Chicago Bulls by double digits. The Rockets led by 30 entering the fourth quarter and thus the starters got rest and the game was rather uneventful.
The travel from Chicago to Milwaukee is also pretty seamless. The Bucks have somewhat turned things around, winning two of their last three, and in the one loss it was really a referee blunder that cost them the game.
The uptick in the Bucks' play and the schedule spot for the Rockets actually give us a chance to grab a decent price on Houston tonight. This team is so well coached, tough, deep, and young. I plan on backing the Rockets in this one but have not bet it yet.
I am waiting for both probable stars on Milwaukee, Dame Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo to be activated and the line to move.
We likely get a better price than +135, and I want +140 or above. I will also play a half-unit on the spread if it gets back to Rockets +4. My plan of action is a half-unit on each the spread and ML on the Houston side, but still waiting for better prices.
Rockets vs. Bucks Prediction
I think this is a game Alperen Sengun has another dominant performance. Brook Lopez on the Milwaukee side has been a shell of his former self.
Once a lead inside scorer on Brooklyn, turned floor spacing and defensive anchor in Milwaukee, Lopez has always been one of the more reliable and drama free players. Sadly he just does not look the part this year.
We know Milwaukee was looking to trade him this offseason – and the reasoning shows. He is slower defensively on help defense, his rim protection has dropped precipitously, and his shot is unreliable. Sengun should absolutely feast as an emerging offensive hub for the Rockets.
The one angle I am avoiding is Sengun rebounds, simply because Lopez may draw him away from the paint on defense. Sengun Points + Assists over and a Rockets ML are my two favorite directions for this game.
