The San Antonio Spurs (1-2) will host the Oklahoma City Thunder (2-1) in Game 4 of the NBA Western Conference Finals this Sunday. Tipoff from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio is set for 8:00 p.m. ET, with the game airing live on NBC and Peacock.
The Spurs are 2.5-point favorites over the Thunder in Game 4 tonight, with the over/under set at 219.5 total points. San Antonio is a -146 moneyline favorite to win outright and tie the series at two games apiece, while Oklahoma City is priced at +124 to pull off the upset and widen the gap.
Let's break down my Thunder vs. Spurs Game 4 predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, May 24.
Thunder vs Spurs Prediction for Game 4
- Thunder vs Spurs pick: Spurs -2.5 (-110)
My Spurs vs. Thunder Game 4 best bet is on San Antonio to cover the spread (-2.5). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Thunder vs Spurs Game 4 Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 219.5 -118o / -104u | +124 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 219.5 -118o / -104u | -146 |
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs NBA Preview
Thunder Betting Preview: Reasserting Dominance
Ever since losing Game 1, The Thunder have gone back to being the best team in the league, and they won Game 3 of this series on the road, making their recent success seem even more credible—while the Spurs look banged up, inexperienced, and rattled.
I liked the Thunder last game. It was a spot where OKC could carry its adjustments from Game 2 and the Spurs were likely to not overcorrect given the series was tied 1-1.
Now it’s Game 4, and the question is whether or not Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the rest of the Thunder's supporting cast will keep tearing through everything in their path as they inch closer to the league's first repeat title since 2018.
Spurs Betting Preview: Now or Never
It all started so well. The Spurs won Game 1 in thrilling fashion behind an incredible performance by Victor Wembanyama to steal homecourt advantage from the Thunder right off the bat.
But heading into tonight, the Spurs face a must-win situation on their home floor. You simply can’t go down 3-1 to the Thunder and hope to win three straight games.
The Spurs’ injury report is clear, surprisingly. De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper will apparently play. I will admit that I had Cavs Game 3 / Spurs Game 4 lined up as similar caps, and the Cavs got absolutely destroyed last night. But the Spurs are better than the Cavs and have shown they can beat the Thunder consistently this year.
I don’t think the Thunder can win three straight games versus Wembanyama, and I don’t trust OKC's shooters to stay this hot either.
Thunder vs Spurs Picks, Best Bets
Spurs -2.5 (-110)
Game 4 provides the ideal situational spot to back the Spurs, largely driven by a few tactical adjustments we are likely to see out of San Antonio tonight.
First, expect some much-needed defensive rebalancing. The Spurs can alter their coverage to send less aggressive help at SGA, effectively cutting off the open kickouts to perimeter targets like Jared McCain and Jaylin Williams.
Conversely, even if they choose to preserve the same defensive scheme, San Antonio can naturally expect positive perimeter regression to work in their favor after Oklahoma City shot the lights out in Game 3 off kickouts from Shai, who logged 12 assists.
On the offensive side of the script, look for the Spurs to scale back the on-ball creation responsibilities for Stephon Castle, transitioning him into a finisher and spot-up shooter where he has been significantly more effective.
Additionally, the efficiency of De'Aaron Fox is a catalyst for this handicap; assuming he plays, Fox turned in a highly promising +9 rating in Game 3 while managing his efficiency beautifully.
Beyond the Xs-and-Os, a historical betting trend also anchors this play. Postseason teams that find themselves down 2-1 after dropping Game 3 on their home floor—but remain home favorites for Game 4—are 23-7 straight-up and 18-11-1 (62%) ATS, a trend that carries even more weight the deeper we get into the playoffs.
I will trust the spot and lay the points with the Spurs in Game 4 tonight.
Under 219.5 (-104)
Overs have been on a crazy run across the league, but we’ve seen sharp action hitting the under on this line. I am expecting the Thunder offense to take a dip in this spot.
The Thunder have figured out how to create turnovers more and more as the series has progressed, but the Spurs’ transition defense has been downright heroic.
Ultimately, the Thunder's shooters are just too inconsistent to sustain this pace, making this an ideal spot to take the under.
Alex Caruso Over 10.5 Points (-112)
Even if the OKC offense dips as a whole, Alex Caruso won’t. He’s an absolute gamer, and the move to the road didn’t cause his production to dip.
Caruso will continue to get both premium corner threes and regular slip opportunities out of their actions.
He’s consistently gone over this number the further the playoffs have progressed because that’s exactly why the Thunder manage his minutes so carefully: so he can make a huge impact right here and now.
De'Aaron Fox Over 14.5 Points (-120)
Okay, they say he’s good to go, so I'll trust it. Fox aggravated his ankle in Game 3 and still managed to go over this number anyway.
He consistently finds ways to get downhill against this Thunder defense, which is incredibly difficult to do, and the Spurs use a lot of Spain pick-and-roll looks with multiple screeners to get him the exact right angles.
Jaylin Williams Over 4.5 Points (-135)
Williams is a much more natural operational fit in this series. Isaiah Hartenstein has reclaimed his stake for heavy minutes by going full-on Bloodsport on Wembanyama, but Williams will still get his share of minutes and remains a natural fit.
I understand the idea that I’m banking on overall offensive regression, so I shouldn't normally take an over on a player like Williams, but the number simply hasn’t moved where it should based on his actual role and minutes.
Luguentz Dort Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-145)
Lu Dort not only isn’t shooting well from deep right now—he’s a mere 2-of-8 in this series—but he’s also actively losing minutes. He’s not playing any more than 30 minutes in these games, and the Thunder's coaching staff keeps finding opportunities for other weapons.
Dort also just isn’t as critical to OKC's current roster construct against this specific opponent; there’s no massive wing for him to mirror and attack on San Antonio.
Thunder vs Spurs Game 4 Betting Predictions
- Spurs -2.5 (-110)
- Under 219.5 (-104)
- Alex Caruso Over 10.5 Points (-112)
- De'Aaron Fox Over 14.5 Points (-120)
- Jaylin Williams Over 4.5 Points (-135)
- Luguentz Dort Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-145)
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