The NBA regular season is back in action with an excellent slate of games on Friday night, with a total of 12 matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in a total of nine picks spanning seven of tonight's contests, including bets for Lakers vs Celtics, Nuggets vs Hawks, Mavericks vs Thunder, and more.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Friday, December 5.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets: Friday, December 5
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Trail Blazers vs. Pistons
Detroit has been a much more consistent team this season.
Portland is coming off a big win over the Cavaliers, and they haven’t responded well in this spot.
Some trends:
- JB Bickerstaff is 13-9-1 ATS (59%) at home when the opponent is on a back-to-back.
- Portland is 8-11 since 2021 on the third game in four nights on the road.
- Detroit is 3-1 ATS this season after a loss.
- The Blazers are 2-6 SU and ATS after a win this season; they do not handle success well.
- Portland has a -1.3 ATS margin against top 10 defenses this season.
Portland’s not even actually that tough of a defense; they rank 20th in halfcourt defense.
The Blazers are actually better on offense than defense.
Portland ranks 30th, dead last, against pick-and-roll ball handlers in scoring positions.
Not a great thing to be against Cade Cunningham (70th percentile league-wide).
The Blazers are 22nd in turnover rate, and the Pistons force the second-most in the league.
That’s going to lead to easier buckets. I project this at Pistons -10.2.
Pick: Pistons -6.5
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Spurs vs. Cavaliers
No Jarrett Allen and no Darius Garland tonight for the Cavs.
The Cavs are 2-5 ATS without Garland this season as a home favorite, and 4-8 ATS as a home favorite overall.
So this doesn’t feel great.
But San Antonio’s run without Wembanyama has been the product of facing overrated teams in the market in bad spots.
The Cavaliers are in a good bounce-back position here, and the line simply doesn’t make sense.
For example, the Spurs were +4.5 against the Wolves on the road.
The Wolves are equally power-rated to the Cavaliers without Garland (who has been pretty bad getting back from injury) and Jarrett Allen?
The Spurs were 8-point underdogs to the Magic (and won outright). The Magic are power rated higher than this version of the Cavs?
We’re trying to stop a speeding train here; the Spurs are 7-2 ATS without Wemby.
But the Cavaliers are getting caught by certain types of teams: Portland, Boston, Atlanta, Toronto.
Those are all teams with defensive identities (even though the Blazers are not good defensively).
San Antonio is 12th in defense, but that’s not their primary emphasis.
I’m nervous, but I’m going to trust my power rating that makes this Cavaliers -6.1, even with Cleveland's worrisome in-season numbers.
Pick: Cavaliers -4.5
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Suns vs. Rockets
This is entirely “the market is too high on Devin Booker.”
Now, I want to be clear, I love how Devin Booker has played this year.
Booker has been awesome. He’s been such a phenomenal leader, passer, and creator for the Suns. He’s been great.
But the Suns are +1.9 in net rating with him on the floor and +6.0 with him on the bench.
Now, Booker plays the most minutes against the best players, and the bench plays the least minutes against the weaker lineups.
That number should not move you.
But based on in-season EPM (Estimated Plus-Minus) at DunksAndThrees.com, I only make Booker worth 0.7 points to the spread, which is way lower than what the market obviously rates him at.
The idea here is not that Booker isn’t valuable, it’s that he’s not as valuable to this team this season as the market thinks.
Now, if you want the nightmare stat, here it is: the Rockets offense is almost completely dependent on offensive rebounds. They generate 19.4 points per game, the most in the league, on second-chance points.
That’s 15 percent of their total scoring output per game. And the Suns are 28th in opponent offensive rebound rate. Yikes.
The upside is that Mark Williams is good to go, and the Suns are slightly better at defensive rebounding with him on the floor, and for whatever reason, they are 5 percentage points better at defensive rebounding rate without Booker.
Speaking of Williams, when he plays this season, the Suns are 14-4 ATS.
It opens up the right model for them, which is one big for pick-and-roll, wings for shooting, and Royce O’Neale at power forward for spacing.
Yes, this is entirely built around Booker, and him being out dramatically changes that.
The idea is that the Suns can hang within single-digits with energy, effort, more size, and defense.
This is not for the faint of heart, the Rockets are awesome. But here’s one more trend to leave you with:
Teams with 3+ days of rest as double-digit road 'dogs are 93-60-3 (60%) ATS since 2003, and 17-10 in the last 10 seasons.
Pick: Suns +11.5
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Lakers vs. Celtics
I want to take the Lakers moneyline so badly. JJ Redick is incredible in bad rest spots. He’s 11-7 ATS on a back-to-back and 6-4 ATS on a road back-to-back.
Even with the likely absences of Luka Doncic and LeBron James, this reeks of a game where Boston, after an impressive winning streak, gets caught by a random team of role players and Austin Reaves. However, the odds of Doncic playing are slim, and James hasn’t been ruled out yet.
At Lakers +6.5, this is likely a halfway line where it will move once Doncic and James are announced out. So, not only is this not the right time to bet it, but with those absences, I power rate this at Celtics -8.7.
I need double-digits on the spread to really pique my interest. Instead, I’m taking the over.
When Luka Doncic does not play this season, the over is 5-0.
The Lakers have enough firepower to score, even against a pretty good Boston defense. The average total when Doncic plays is 231, it drops by five points without Doncic.
At 225.5, this is well below that, and I project this all the way up at 235.
Pick: Over 225.5 (-110)
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Heat vs. Magic
This total is nuts. This is only the second time in Jamahl Mosley’s career with Orlando that the total has been above 240 (if you are curious, the previous time went under by 18.5 points against the Pacers in 2023).
I get the idea. Both teams rank highly in transition rate — with Miami ranking 1st and the Magic ranking 6th.
The Magic offense has been flames lately, going over their team total in eight of their last twelve games.
Since Desmond Bane’s game-winner back on November 10, the over is 8-4 in Magic games. They’ve been red hot. But the average total in those games was 230, and even in that span, when the total was above 235, the under is 2-1.
The Heat, meanwhile, have had a total above 240 already eight times this season thanks to their blistering pace. But while the over is 4-3-1 in those games, the opponent team total is just 3-5 to the over.
This is the secret with Miami: Yes, they are fast. Yes, they don’t set screens and just get shots up. However, the Heat' offense isn’t actually their strength. They use their offense to tire you out for their elite halfcourt defense (ranked 2nd).
With Tyler Herro (questionable against Orlando) in the lineup, the under is 3-2 and the Heat are -3.2 points on average against their team total.
On the flip side, Orlando is likely getting Paolo Banchero back (upgraded to questionable) from a month-long injury. This is the kind of move that bumps up a team’s projected team total in the market because of Banchero’s talent and reputation as a scorer.
But even setting aside his inefficiency issues, when a team brings back a high-usage player who has been out while the team found its stride, there are often hiccups and struggles offensively.
I make the total for this game 236.5. Yes, it will be fast. But it will be a fast, defensive game between two division opponents.
I also like the Heat here on the spread. Erik Spoelstra is 7-4 ATS against Jamahl Mosley since he took over the Magic job. The best unit on the floor in this game is the Miami defense.
I stopped fading Orlando after their hot streak continued, but it was broken by the Spurs in a game that went under the total by 9.5 points. I just needed to feel like I dodged the falling knife, and the Spurs did that for me.
I also love fading teams adding in those pieces like Banchero on the spread.
When Banchero came back last season, the Magic were only 1.5-point favorites against the woeful 76ers. They won and covered, and then went on to lose and fail to cover five straight. They were also without Franz Wagner and didn’t have Desmond Bane.
However, the spot is enough for me to like Miami. I make this line Magic -2.5, showing plenty of value on the Heat at +5.5.
Pick: Heat +5.5, Under 240.5
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Pacers vs. Bulls
First, this is a high total vs. two under teams; the Pacers rank 1st in road under rate, and the Bulls rank 8th in under rate at home.
When Andrew Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin have been available, the over is 6-3, but that’s mostly home games; the under is 2-1 on the road.
The Pacers have more offensive talent back, but that also means they can score and set their defense to get stops.
This should be a fast-paced game; both teams rank in the top-10 in transition opportunity frequency. They get out and run. However, both teams are also top-five in transition defense per possession.
These teams are comfortable playing fast, so they slow the ball down.
The offense has also dropped off a cliff for the Bulls; the under is 5-2-1 in their last eight and their team total is 6-2 to the under in their last eight.
I project this total at 227.4 on full-season numbers, but I’m a little behind Indiana’s regression back to offensive decency with better health.
Still, even if I give this a five-point bump, I’m still five points under the number.
I also like the Pacers here.
Even with how dreadful they’ve been, I still make them 2.4-point favorites with current-season numbers, which tells you how awful the Bulls have been the past few weeks.
Indiana is just a better team at this moment, and have been playing way better recently. Rick Carlisle is 15-12-1 ATS as a 'dog against division opponents (i.e. short travel time) with equal rest.
Billy Donovan, however, is 8-5 ATS as a home favorite against division opponents with the Bulls. So, I’ll tread lightly with Indiana.
Pick: Under 237.5
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Mavericks vs. Thunder
We usually say, “I’m going to sprinkle on the moneyline.”
This is more like a pinch. Like in a baking recipe, where you don’t want to use too much of the spice, or it becomes inedible. You gotta go light here. But the spot is excellent.
The Mavericks have put together three wins. Yes, one was against the woeful Clippers, another against the Nuggets without their two best defensive starters, and the third in a game where the Heat missed 26 three-pointers.
However, you can’t nitpick when a team like this gets on a roll; it’s only going to happen so many times and only under these conditions.
Jason Kidd is 8-5 ATS against Mark Daigneault in his career — 6-4 in the regular season, and 4-6 straight up. Despite the gap between these teams, Kidd has managed to keep it close.
Yes, much of that was having Luka Doncic, who you will note is no longer on the Mavericks for some strange reason I can’t remember.
When Anthony Davis plays, his teams are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS against the Thunder since 2023-24, when OKC first emerged as a great team. They struggle with his size and skill combination.
The Mavericks have turnover issues, which is not what you want against Oklahoma City.
I can’t sit here and identify a lot of team stats where Dallas has a surprising edge. They stink, at least so far this year. However, this is the premium spot for the Mavericks, and the Thunder seem to to be at near-peak value.
I’m not going to sit here and say “OKC has to lose sometime” because, well, no, they don’t. Nonetheless, Dallas moneyline is an intriguing option in tonight's game.
However, if you are looking for a reason to skip the Mavericks moneyline, the Thunder are an absolutely guano 44-2 SU against teams under .500 since the start of last season. However, the +700 value is enough to make me want to bet it anyway.
I also like the under as a more substantial play, because it’s a lot safer.
Even in this three-game winning streak, the Mavericks still only went over their team total in two of the three games by a combined seven points in suspect situations (against Clippers’ bad defense, and Miami's fast pace).
The under hits at the second-best rate, league-wide, in Mavericks road games among all teams.
This is two elite half-court defenses, and while the Thunder are likely to generate fast-breaks off Dallas’ third-highest offensive turnover rate, the Mavericks have the third-best transition defense in the league.
This should be a slow, grind-it-out slog.
If Dallas pulls off our upset, it’s because the Mavs mucked up the game and got enough offense to slip past. If OKC stomps them, it’s likely because Dallas goes back to being completely inept on offense. And if OKC wins but doesn’t cover, we'll likely see a lower-possession battle that stays close.
I project this all the way down at 217, with Dallas projected under 105 points on season-long numbers. I’ll take the under.
Pick: Mavericks ML (+700), Under 229.5
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