We have a full slate of NBA action scheduled as there are 8 matchups on tonight's slate. Here are my quick-hit bets for Tuesday, March 25.
NBA Picks & Predictions for Tuesday, March 25
- Hawks +8
- Thunder -10
- Warriors -4.5
Hawks at Rockets
| Hawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 235.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 235.5 -110o / -110u | -298 |
The Hawks are 53% ATS on the road and 15-10 ATS as a road 'dog this season, having covered eight of their past 11 games as a road 'dog.
The Rockets are 7-10 ATS this season when laying more than two possessions (more than six points). That tracks with their style, which features a sluggish offense and a physical, brute defense.
The Hawks, with Onyeka Okongwu and Clint Capela, have the size to give Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams problems, either together (in a two-big lineup) or individually.
I make this Rockets -5, and while it’s a good bounce-back spot for the Rockets after the loss to Denver and I expect them to win, I’ll grab the points with Atlanta.
PICK: Hawks +8
Thunder at Kings
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 232 -112o / -108u | -440 |
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 232 -112o / -108u | +340 |
I grabbed this at -9 when it opened. Chet Holmgren is questionable and Jalen Williams has been upgraded to questionable.
The Kings are 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS this season on the second night of a back-to-back and are coming off a dispiriting loss to the Celtics.
Oklahoma City is 20-14-1 as a double-digit favorite this season. The Thunder's average margin of victory is 12.9, so they just need to win by their usual amount here.
I make this 11.8, so I’m comfortable with any number up to Thunder -12.
Look for an absolute barrage from the Thunder offense vs. one of the worst perimeter defenses in the league. Oklahoma City has shot 63% on drives this season vs. the Kings. This is not the team you want to play if you struggle to contain the ball on drive-and-kick like Sacramento does. The Thunder will roll again.
PICK: Thunder -10
Warriors at Heat
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 217 -110o / -110u | -218 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 217 -110o / -110u | +180 |
I wanted to bet the Heat moneyline. I so badly did. I think it’s such a typical March swerve — the team that recently lost nine in a row after trading the superstar beats the superstar in his return to his former home. It makes perfect sense, in a twisted NBA way.
But I can’t.
First off, Butler is not wired the way other superstars are. He won’t be overly emotional like Karl-Anthony Towns returning to Minnesota. It’s just another place where he collected a paycheck with people who didn’t respect him enough to pay him more money than he’s worth at this point in his career.
Another night at the office, with a twist of pettiness. It’s a perfect situation for Butler, especially with the Heat planning a tribute video for him.
Second, my numbers don’t exactly love Golden State and think they’re a pretty average team that's playing above their heads recently … and I still make this Heat +6. I believe my numbers are low, and they still put this above the spread.
Miami is 31-38-1 ATS (45%) against teams who average above league-average three-pointers made per game this season. Miami’s offense runs out of steam late in games. The line’s low enough for me to buy in, especially with the likelihood that Steph Curry will play and this line will move toward Golden State.
