The Houston Rockets (31-19) and Oklahoma City Thunder (40-12) will meet in the NBA on Saturday afternoon. Tipoff from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The Thunder are 3.5-point favorites over the Rockets on the spread (Thunder -3.5), with the over/under set at 213.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -155 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Houston is +130 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into our Rockets vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, February 7.
Rockets vs Thunder Prediction
- Rockets vs Thunder picks: Rockets Moneyline (+130), Reed Sheppard Under 2.5 Assists (-115)
Our Thunder vs. Rockets best bets are on Houston moneyline and Reed Sheppard under 2.5 assists. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Rockets vs Thunder NBA Saturday Odds
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 213.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 213.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Preview
This NBA moneyline system assumes that the betting market and casual bettors slightly overvalue home court in tightly lined games, creating quiet value on the visiting team when it is a small underdog, such as the Rockets in Saturday's matchup against the Thunder.
By requiring that the team we back is on the road and that the game is in the regular season, the system focuses on meaningful contests where both teams are motivated and talent levels are close.
Limiting the spread percentage and the point-spread itself to a narrow band between a pick'em and 6.5 points targets matchups where the road side is clearly competitive but still priced as the less likely winner, largely because the public prefers the perceived safety of a short home favorite — and the Rockets seemingly fit the bill in this spot.
In these situations, the visiting underdog often has comparable talent, fresher legs in certain schedule spots, or matchup advantages that are not fully captured in the line, which appears to be the case for the Rockets here.
Rockets vs Thunder Picks, Betting Predictions
Rockets Moneyline
So, consistently siding with that road team aims to exploit these small but repeatable inefficiencies in how the market prices home advantage.
Let's back the Rockets to pull off the road upset in Oklahoma City on Saturday afternoon.
Reed Sheppard Under 2.5 Assists
Action PRO is projecting 1.4 assists for Rockets' guard Reed Sheppard in today's matchup against the Thunder, showing a 29.1% edge against is current prop line of over/under 2.5.
Sheppard has recorded one assist or less in six of his last eight games, despite seeing that number spike pretty high in the two games he went over during that span — finishing with 4+ assists in a pair of matchups against the Hawks and Pacers.
Today, the Rockets draw a very difficult matchup against a Thunder team that leads the entire league in defensive rating and points allowed per game.
So, we'll also back Sheppard to stay under 2.5 assists this afternoon.
Rockets vs Thunder Best Bets
- Rockets Moneyline (+130)
- Reed Sheppard Under 2.5 Assists (-115)
Spread
We will not be betting either side of the spread in this game.
Moneyline
Our first Thunder vs. Rockets betting prediction is on Houston moneyline at +130.
Over/Under
Our second pick for Saturday's game is on Reed Sheppard under 2.5 assists.
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