The Miami Heat (9-9) and Boston Celtics (16-4) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the TD Garden in Boston. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Celtics are 10-point road favorites over the Heat on the spread (Celtics -10), with the over/under set at 220.5 total points. Boston is a -500 favorite to win outright, while Miami is +375 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks for Monday, December 2.
Heat vs. Celtics Picks, Prediction
Spread
The Celtics enter this game on the second leg of a back to back after playing the Cavaliers in Cleveland on Sunday. They are coming off of a tough loss where they were up 12 going into the fourth quarter and then went on to lose outright by 4.
The Celtics were also without Jaylen Brown and Derrick White. Considering the uncertainty of some key players on the second night of a back to back, I would skip playing into the spread. This could go either way.
The Heat also have Jimmy Butler listed as doubtful. If you were thinking the Heat were the direction you wanted, it would be good to grab the +10 now because we already have a better understanding of the Heat report.
If Brown and/or White are out, or either of the bigs on the second night of a back to back, the line would move in Miami's favor.
Moneyline
The moneyline is always so pricey on the Celtics side, it's a big stay-away for me. Also, do not put juiced ML bets in parlays, they hardly move the needle when it comes to your overall payout.
However, on the contrary, if you want the Heat as your direction, consider tacking on some ML exposure too.
Over/Under
The total for this game is dropping in the wake of the injury news and so many players being questionable/ doubtful. However, I kind of like the over in this matchup, and going against the injury repricing that is going on in the market.
When the Heat play without Butler, they play faster and shoot a lot more three-pointers, and their defense gets worse. If the Celtics are down two bigs tonight, they will play more small-ball and we will see increased minutes for Sam Hauser.
Whenever I go opposite the direction of the market, I make it a smaller bet, but I would look towards the over. This is not sharp action coming in on the under, it is the books repricing the lines based on injury news.
My Pick: Over 220.5
Heat vs Celtics Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 220.5 -110 / -110 | +375 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 220.5 -110 / -110 | -500 |
- Heat vs Celtics spread: Celtics -10
- Heat vs Celtics over/under: 220.5 points
- Heat vs Celtics moneyline: Celtics -500, Heat +375
- Heat vs Celtics best bet: Over 220.5
Heat vs. Celtics Preview
I don't mean to sound redundant, but with the injury report looking like a grocery list on both sides of the game, the line movement between now and tipoff (as well as the subsequent results of the game) rely heavily on who actually is active and plays.
The prop market is also not priced at all for this game. I would look toward props for Payton Pritchard, Sam Houser, and Neemias Queta early in the day. These guys should get a big uptick in minutes considering the injuries piling up for the league's best team.
Heat vs. Celtics Prediction
My Celtics vs. Heat best bet is on the over at 220.5 points, but as always, shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
I would continue to wait this out and bet it closer to tipoff, because the lines continue to drop relative to players being inactive.
However, it is a bit of a false flag, as it is not sharp action driving the line down, and the pace and three-point volume on Miami should increase without Butler, as the Celtics have a plethora of shooters to bring in as replacements.
Best Bet: Over 220.5 (-110)
Same Game Parlay: Sam Hauser 4+ Three-Pointers Made, Over 220.5 (+230)
Celtics vs Heat Betting Trends
