The Memphis Grizzlies (48-34) and Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) will meet for Game 1 of their first round NBA Playoff series this afternoon. Tipoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Thunder are 13.5-point favorites over the Grizzlies on the spread (Thunder -13.5), with the over/under set at 229.5 total points. Oklahoma City is an -1000 favorite to win outright, while Memphis is +650 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Grizzlies vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, April 20.
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Picks, Prediction
My Thunder vs. Grizzlies best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Thunder -13.5 (-110)
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Odds
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 229.5 -110o / -110u | +650 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 229.5 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -13.5
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder over/under: 229.5 total points
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder moneyline: Grizzlies +650, Thunder -1000
- Grizzlies vs. Thunder best bet: Thunder 13.5 (-110)
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Preview
The Thunder losing this game would be truly stunning. They enter the postseason with the best point differential in NBA history.
The Grizzlies are 0-7 against the Thunder the last two seasons, 1-6 ATS. This game neither favors Memphis in overall team strength nor in tactical advantage.
So, no, things are not looking great for the Grizzlies here. Let’s go through some trends.
- Teams with a point differential of +10 or better are 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS since 2003 (Thunder are +12 this season).
- Teams with better than a +5 point differential are 69-25 (73%) SU, 50-43-1 (54%) ATS.
- Number 1-seeds in Game 1 of the first round who are double-digit favorites are 21-2 ( 91.3%) SU, 15-8-0 (65.2%). Western Conference No.1 seeds as double-digit favorites are 10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS.
- No. 8-seeds since the advent of the play-in tournament are 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS in Game 1.
- Teams that won more than 60 games (Thunder) are 20-3 SU, 14-9 ATS (61%) in Game 1.
The biggest problem, as always for the Grizzlies, is that their halfcourt offense is not good enough. They struggle to score consistently and to find enough playmaking. This didn’t improve after firing Taylor Jenkins either. The Grizzlies were 15th in halfcourt offense under Tuomas Iisalo to close the season.
The good news is (maybe), that the Grizzlies’ offense doesn’t get worse against tougher competition despite their overall awful record against elite teams. Memphis was still 15th in halfcourt offense against top-10 defenses this season.
You can suggest that playing Zach Edey more (+13.3 net rating since firing Jenkins) can have an impact. But Edey will have to give space in drop coverage in pick-and-rolls, which allows Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to more easily get to his shots.
Without Jaylen Wells (out for the season with a wrist fracture), Memphis will have to use Desmond Bane more on him, and while Bane has impacted Shai’s efficiency somewhat in his matchups, he hasn’t slowed him down (we’ll come back to the consequence of Bane guarding SGA later).
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Betting Predictions
Thunder -13.5
There aren’t major strategic matchups that bend dramatically towards the Thunder in this spot. They’re just a swarm of giant killer hornets who overwhelm you, and Memphis has stumbled over the last four months.
This should be a comfortable, easy win for Memphis. I make the spread on this game -14.6 and like it up to -14.5.
Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 19.5 Points
When matched against Isaiah Hartenstein the last two seasons, Jaren Jackson Jr has averaged 22 points per 75 possessions (below his possession count in this game) and 43.2% TrueShooting, which is like throwing bricks in a trash can from across a parking lot.
Chet Holmgren will spell no relief. Both can handle Jackson on the perimeter and contain him on the glass.
Jalen Williams Over 21.5 Points
Remember how I mentioned Desmond Bane will have to guard SGA more? That means Ja Morant or Scottie Pippen Jr will have to guard Jalen Williams more. And he’s going to take them to the post and across the lane on short screen sequences.
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Best Bets
- Thunder -13.5
- Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 19.5 Points (-115)
- Jalen Williams Over 21.5 Points (-125)
Thunder vs Grizzlies Betting Trends
