Yankees vs Royals Pick & Prediction | Monday MLB Odds
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +135 |
| Kansas City Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -160 |
If the season ended today, both the Yankees and Royals would be in the playoffs. New York sits atop the AL East with the most wins in baseball, while Kansas City holds the second AL Wild Card spot.
The Yankees are coming off a Sunday Night Baseball win to cap off a big series with the Dodgers. Now, they have a quick turnaround to Kauffman Stadium to face the Royals.
Yankees vs Royals odds have the Yankees as -115 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 8.5 (-105o / -115u). Find my Yankees vs Royals pick on the total below in my MLB betting preview.
New York Yankees
Rodon struggled through an injury-riddled 2023 season. He went 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA in 14 starts, where he allowed at least three runs in eight separate outings. Rodon had one of the highest barrel rates in the league and allowed more than a homer per game.
Things have gone much better this season. He's 8-2 with a 3.08 ERA and looks like a two-time All-Star again. The biggest difference has been the bounceback for his fastball. What had typically been his best pitch was his worst last year — opponents had a .392 wOBA against his fastball. This season, it's again been his best offering.
His barrel rate has gone down from last season’s nightmare, but it is still too high. Rodon also continues to have a home run problem, surrendering nine long balls in the past eight games.
The Bronx Bombers look like the Bronx Bombers again. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto rank first and second in the league in OPS this season. The Yankees have the best wOBA and wRC+ in baseball and have the second-most home runs.
Soto has missed the last three games but is expected back on Monday.
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City’s early success has largely been due to the success of their starting rotation. We all expected it from Cole Ragans, but who had Seth Lugo in the Cy Young conversation on their bingo card? He's 9-1 with a 2.13 ERA and has the seventh-best odds to take home the AL Cy Young.
Lugo throws a ton of breaking pitches, mixing in a sinker, curveball, slider, slurve, cutter, and even the occasional sweeper. He is throwing his curveball less than ever while using his slurve and cutter more.
But it’s not all sunshine and roses. Most of his expected metrics are closer to the league average, including his 3.78 xERA. He's allowed an 8.6% barrel rate and has a .310 xwOBA. Lugo’s K/9 rate is just 7.58, his lowest mark since 2017.
Bobby Witt Jr. is having an MVP-caliber season and has helped this Royals offense to a top 10 ranking in wOBA and wRC+. They have been even better over the last month. Vinnie Pasquantino has gotten going at the plate recently and Salvador Perez is defying age.
Yankees vs. Royals
Betting Pick & Prediction
We have already seen the negative regression start coming for Lugo. After allowing one or fewer in seven straight games, Lugo got shelled for five runs in his last outing against Kansas City.
Rodon is also a negative regression candidate. He has a 4.24 xERA compared to a 3.08 ERA, and he ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in hard-hit rate allowed. Rodon allows way too many home runs, boasting one of the highest HR/9 rates in the league — Kansas City could put up a crooked number with one swing.
Both of these offenses have been playing very well recently. Over the last month, the Yankees and Royals rank first and third in wOBA, including first and second in runs scored.
These offenses will also both be in their better splits. Kansas City is much better against southpaws, with a wRC+ of 110 against the side. The Yankees will be at an advantage against a right-handed pitcher where they lead the league with a 128 wRC+.
I’m going to wait until the lineups are announced to make sure that Soto is back for the Yankees. But if Soto is in the lineup, I like the over.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
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