I hit my first same-game parlay write-up of the year in London after coming up one leg short on a few occasions.
It's time to continue the winning ways as the Yankees and Royals, who have winning streaks of their own, begin a three-game set in Kansas City.
This SGP pays out at nearly 10-to-1, so let’s see if we can hit another.
Here's my Yankees vs Royals Monday Parlay, which includes prop picks for Seth Lugo, Bobby Witt Jr and more.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Yankees vs Royals Monday Parlay Picks
- Seth Lugo Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-146)
- Bobby Witt Jr. to Steal a Base (+265)
- Yankees ML (-126)
Parlay Odds: +996 (FanDuel)
Seth Lugo Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-146)
The Royals have certainly struck gold with veteran starter Seth Lugo, who currently boasts the sixth-best ERA in baseball at 2.13. His recent performance has been impressive, with Lugo striking out 71 batters in 84.2 innings. While the strikeout numbers may not immediately catch the eye, it's worth noting that Lugo has surpassed five strikeouts in six of his past seven starts, including a solid five against the Guardians just last week.
The Yankees have made vast improvements in the strikeout department, ranking top 10 in baseball with a 20% strikeout rate, but it's sat at 22.7% in the past three weeks. With the recently lifted strikeout rate, Lugo could make the Yankees lineup off-balanced with seven pitches that he throws at least 6.6% of the time. He looks to generate swing and misses late in counts with sliders and curveballs, which is dangerous for some of the Yankees big-boppers like Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge.
Bobby Witt Jr. to Steal a Base (+265)
The Royals found the face of the franchise in the 2021 MLB Draft with Bobby Witt Jr. One can argue that shortstop is the most important position, and very few players offer the same five-tool approach that Witt has in his toolkit with his contact, fielding, speed and 30-plus homer power.
We'll look at the speed tool here as the avenue for securing a nice plus-money play in this SGP.
Witt gets on base at a strong .371 OBP clip, and he's looking for a chance to run when he gets on base. He's the fastest player in baseball, ranking in the 100th percentile in sprint speed, per Statcast. The MVP candidate has tallied 19 steals in his breakout season, and Yankees catcher Jose Trevino is a pretty poor thrower, ranking in the second percentile in catcher pop time. Those factors lead to Witt having a terrific chance to steal a base. At these odds, it's tough to pass on for another leg of this SGP.
Yankees ML (-126)
All reports indicate that Juan Soto should return for the Yankees after missing the Dodgers series because of forearm tightness. The void Soto left in the lineup was noticeable. The Yankees offense that owns the best wRC+ in baseball appeared mortal in a three-game set against the Dodgers. That should change if Soto returns. Lugo won't have the luxury of pitching around Soto — or Judge — without having motion on the basepaths.
Let's take a brief moment to shine light on the tremendous Judge. We're looking at a generational hitter here. the 6'7" center fielder boasts a league-leading 210 wRC+ along with 24 long balls, also leading baseball. He's simply terrific and can shift any game with one plate appearance.
Lugo's gaudy numbers will likely come down to earth soon enough. He just finished his worst start of the year against the Guardians, allowing five runs in 6.1 innings. Regression has been eyeing Lugo for quite some time, as the peripheral numbers show reasons for concern. Lugo's 2.13 ERA is nice but not sustainable, with a 3.78 xERA, 3.47 FIP and 3.91 xFIP. It's a solid time to fade the overperforming Lugo against the best lineup in baseball.
Even if Lugo turns in a strong start, which could happen, the Royals bullpen is the least talented in MLB. We saw how much the bullpen struggled over the weekend against the Mariners, in a series the Royals somehow won despite allowing at least six runs in two of three games. They won't be as fortunate against the World Series favorite Yankees.
