Yankees vs. Rockies Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -200 | 11 -110 / -110 | -1.5 -125 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+170 | 11 -110 / -110 | +1.5 +105 |
The New York Yankees and Colorado Rockies begin the second half of the season at Coors Field this weekend, and Friday's series opener will mark the second start of the year for Carlos Rodon.
Will the left-hander find success against a former division rival?
Let's break it down in my Yankees vs Rockies preview, which includes a betting pick on the run line.
New York Yankees
Rodon's season debut last week against the Cubs was an odd one. He was incredibly efficient despite being on a pitch count, throwing 45 of his 69 pitches for strikes and getting a ton of outs via contact. The left-hander induced 11 fly balls and seven ground balls, striking out just two in the process. He also allowed two barrels and nine hard-hit balls.
It certainly wasn't anything like the performances we saw all year in 2022. With the Giants, Rodon was arguably a top-five pitcher in baseball with a 2.64 xERA and a very high 33.4% strikeout rate. His 2021 was essentially a carbon copy, watching as he posted a 2.68 xERA and a 34.6% strikeout rate with Chicago.
Pitching in the NL West last season, Rodon faced the Rockies three times. Unfortunately for us trying to handicap this one, Rodon didn't pitch any one of those at Coors Field. Still, he fared incredibly well with a 2.25 ERA and 17 strikeouts in just 16 innings.
Limiting the hard contact will be key for Rodon in this one, considering he's always been something of a fly ball pitcher with a rate around two points higher than the league average. Even with that, though, at Coors Field even weak fly balls can get out.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have been abysmal at the plate this year with a 79 wRC+, and against left-handers they've been even worse with a 64 wRC+. In that split, this team is striking out in 26.1% of plate appearances and walking in just 6.7%. Even with a lot of fly balls against lefties, the Rockies are just 26th in home run-to-fly ball ratio in the split at just 9.4%.
Speaking of home runs, Austin Gomber has already allowed 20 home runs this year in just 90 innings. That puts him in a tie for fifth-highest with Jordan Lyles and Dean Kremer. He also owns a 10.2% barrel rate which is in the bottom 20% of the league and a 45.5% hard-hit rate which lands in the bottom 14% of the league. It would be imperative with these numbers for Gomber to allow fewer fly balls.
While the left-hander has come in under his career average this year, his 25.7% fly ball rate still comes in over two points worse than average. When he's allowing a hard-hit ball almost half the time and pitching at Coors Field, it's going to have to be better than that.
Yankees vs. Rockies Betting Pick
While Rodon has allowed far more fly balls than I'd like to see, I still have faith in him against a swing-happy team that has really struggled to hit left-handed pitching. I thought Rodon looked much better last week than his expected stats would have indicated, and I am particularly impressed given he did so with such a long layoff between big-league starts.
The Yankees rank fourth in home run-to-fly ball ratio and should be putting plenty in the air against Gomber, who owns a low 15.4% strikeout rate.
I expect big things from New York's offense in a decisive win.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 |
