The Boston Red Sox look to take a much-needed win against their division-rival New York Yankees on Sunday night in the series finale at Fenway Park. After being blown out on Friday night, Boston responded with an 8-4 win on Saturday.
Boston sends out Kutter Crawford, who looks to bounce back after a rough last month. The right-hander has struggled at home this season, with his ERA coming in 1.5 runs higher. The Yankees will send out Marcus Stroman, who has surprised with a sub-3 ERA. Though he may have negative regression coming — there's more on that soon.
With that, let's break down my Yankees vs Red Sox same-game parlay for the primetime baseball bout. There's nothing like some good ol' fashioned Yankees-Red Sox game.
Here's my Yankees vs Red Sox MLB Parlay: Sunday Night Baseball SGP.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Yankees vs Red Sox Parlay: Sunday Night Baseball SGP
- Over 8.5 Runs
- Juan Soto 2+ Bases
- Rafael Devers 2+ Bases
Parlay Odds: +425 (bet365)
Marcus Stroman ranks among the most fortunate starting pitchers this season when it comes to avoiding negative regression. His expected ERA (4.47) is nearly two runs higher than actual (2.82), with most of his luck coming via a high ground-ball rate.
But Stroman in general does not overpower the opposition. He is in the bottom 20% of all pitchers in strikeout rate and he’s hit a career-worst in BB% (10.2). The right-hander pitches to contact and has stranded 83.3% of all runners (up from his career rate of 72.5%).
It’s only a matter of time before the runs begin to pour in. The Red Sox also rank inside the top 10 in terms of wRC+ (104) against right-handed pitching. This is also the fourth-best team in terms of isolated power (.175).
The Yankees offense, to no surprise, also crushes righties. The Bronx Bombers are second in terms of isolated power and first in wRC+. They draw a matchup with Kutter Crawford who, after a hot start to the season, has really struggled of late.
Crawford has allowed 4+ runs in three of his last four. He’s allowed a home run in all but one of his last eight. Unlike Stroman, Crawford doesn’t generate many ground balls — which can quickly become an issue against strong lineups. In general, the 28-year-old ranks slightly below average in barrels (7.9%), though he does largely limit hard hits.
What’s better than an offensive-heavy slugfest between two division rivals?
Juan Soto scared the entire Yankee fanbase after dealing with forearm inflammation. But after some time off he returned and picked up right where he left off. Soto has been been over this two-base prop in each of the games against Boston this series. He also has a great matchup against Crawford.
His numbers against righties are eye-popping. We all know how dominant Aaron Judge is (207 wRC+, .381 ISO vs. RHP), but Soto is not too far behind. The lefty has a 196 wRC+ and .297 ISO.
Soto has 15 home runs and a 42% extra-base hit rate against righties. There’s not much more to add about how dominant Soto is. He’s one of the best hitters in baseball and ranks in the 99th percentile or higher in too many categories (xBA, xSLG, barrel%, average exit velocity, hard-hit% and BB%).
Crawford has been split-proof but when he is beaten deep, it’s come against lefties. Nearly 20% of all left-handed hits have left the park. Just 5% of hits against righties have been home runs.
Sometimes it’s hip to be square. Let’s keep it going with Rafael Devers, who is by far and away the best Boston hitter against right-handed pitching. His wRC+ (174) is elite, as his isolated power (.338).
He has the most home runs of any Red Sox player (12) against righties and has more extra-base hits than singles, oddly enough. He has a 56% extra-base hit rate.
In general, Devers ranks in the 89th percentile or better in barrels (13.9%), hard hits (49.4%), xSLG (.516) and average exit velocity. He has seen his strikeout rate jump up nearly 5% from last season, but this isn’t the matchup where Stroman can overpower the lefty. Devers has the leg up.
Stroman has struggled much more against left-handed hitting. Lefties see a near-.250 OPS boost compared to right-handed batters. He allows a 54% extra-base hit rate vs. LHH, a number that drops to 32% against righties.
