The latest Yankees vs Padres odds for Friday, May 24, list the Yankees as -118 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 7.5 (-105o /-115u).
San Diego's ace, Yu Darvish, takes the mound against New York's Carlos Rodon.
Let's dive into my my Yankees vs Padres same game parlay for Friday night, which features three legs that include a moneyline and player props for Rodon and Darvish.
Here's my Yankees vs Padres Friday parlay, which includes picks for Yu Darvish and Carlos Rodon.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Yankees vs Padres MLB Parlay: SGP Picks (via FanDuel)
- Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
- Yu Darvish Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-116)
- Padres ML (+100)
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Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Rodon has gotten off to a good start in 2024, posting a 3.27 ERA and 1.20 WHIP through his first 10 starts. However, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming, as he ranks in the 32nd percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
This regression could come to fruition against San Diego, a team he got shelled by in the last meeting. In that outing, Rodon surrendered five runs on four hits through just four innings, posting a meager two strikeouts in the process.
That lack of success — at least in the strikeout department — is likely to continue against the Padres, a team that ranks third in the league in strikeout percentage this season.
Yu Darvish Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-116)
Meanwhile, Darvish looks to continue his dominant start to the campaign. Through nine starts, the right-hander is 4-1 with a commanding 2.08 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are just as dominant, as he ranks in the 86th percentile in xERA and 89th percentile in barrel rate.
Specifically, we're going to back Darvish in the strikeout department, as he ranks in the 72nd percentile in chase rate and 67th percentile in strikeout rate.
This success is likely to continue against New York, a team Darvish is 3-2 against through seven career meetings. He recorded six or more strikeouts in four of those seven outings.
Through 47 career plate appearances against Darvish, this current Yankees lineup possesses a fade-worthy 23.4 strikeout rate and 29.9 whiff rate.
Padres ML (+100)
If we're fading Rodon while simultaneously backing Darvish, then a highly correlated outcome would be that the Padres win this game.
Darvish hasn't surrendered a single run over his past four starts, with San Diego winning each of those games.
The guy is on fire, and he'll continue to be worth backing based on his analytics.
Meanwhile, I don't trust Rodon and his expected regression.
Furthermore, the Padres possess the more trustworthy bullpen. This season, their relief pitching outranks New York's in both FIP and xFIP.
The only reason that the Yankees are favored in this game is because they possess the stronger lineup.
However, San Diego also ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
