Yankees vs. Guardians Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -170 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +110 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+140 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -130 |
Hunter Gaddis has enjoyed a good start to his 2023 campaign with a 3.72 ERA, but he will have to face a potent New York Yankees lineup on Tuesday.
The Cleveland Guardians lineup has not impressed early, so the Yankees have a distinct edge in that regard. The cherry on top of that is ace Gerrit Cole is pitching for New York — he should be able to hold Cleveland's weaker lineup in check. The bullpens are closer to a wash, but the Yankees should get to Gaddis in this one, especially early. If the Yanks can get to the Guardians bullpen before the fifth inning, they should be in great shape.
For more analysis, continue reading my Yankees vs. Guardians game preview below.
New York Yankees
Gerrit Cole is his usual self to start the 2023 season. He may rank in the 39th percentile in average Exit Velocity and 51st percentile in Hard Hit Rate (per Baseball Savant), but he is still an ace. He owns a 0.73 ERA against a 2.13 xERA in two starts. He ranks in the 95th percentile in strikeout rate, which is a massive plus against a Cleveland team that rarely struck out in 2022.
On offense, the Yankee bats have been on fire, even when factoring in a tough start to rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe’s career. The Yanks have particularly fared well with a right-hander on the bump, boasting a 10%+ walk rate and a team 131 wRC+, which ranks third in MLB. In addition, they have six hitters with a .400+ xwOBA off righties on the young year, and this encompasses much of the lineup. This is a boost against a young righty, like Gaddis.
Out of the bullpen, the Yankees have been spectacular. They own a reliever xFIP of 2.94 and have struck out 32.7% of hitters. This is elite and should help quiet Cleveland.
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians have a good pitching staff of their own, but Gaddis is not necessarily their best option. He is ranked 28th on their prospect list (per MLB Pipeline), but fans across the league know how strong their pitching pipeline is.
He does rank in the 90th percentile in Hard Hit Rate and the 87th percentile in average Exit Velocity. His chase rate ranks in the 8th percentile with a 20.5% strikeout mark. New York has a number of hitters who will strike out, but since Gaddis pitches to contact more than anything, that negates a potential issue.
The Guardians lineup has not fared well against right-handed hurlers. They have a 79 wRC+ with a 21.5% strikeout rate. Needless to say, this will not be a strong matchup with Cole on the bump, so they could mail it in. Overall, of the consistent starts, Josh Naylor and Andrés Giménez are the only starters with an xwOBA over .340. This is night and day compared to the Yankees lineup.
As for Cleveland's bullpen, it's solid but has been rather middle of the road in the early going with a 4.37 xFIP and 29.3% strikeout rate. They will likely be able to mow down more batters than Gaddis, but still, they may allow some runs to a New York lineup that doesn't have many holes. The Yankees should score off of this bullpen at least once.
Yankees vs. Guardians Betting Pick
The Yankees own a significant edge in every facet of this game.
Cole is better than Gaddis, the Yankees 'pen is better and their lineup has shown it can hit well off righties. Cole should shut down Cleveland, but the team total for the Yankees in the first five innings should be in play right away.
Gaddis has walked people on occasion, so with a patient lineup, he may rack up a high pitch count, too. Bet the Yankees' first five team total over 2.5 (+100) to 3 (-115).
