Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds, Pick
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-135 | 8.5 +102/-123 | -1.5 +119 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+114 | 8.5 +102/-123 | +1.5 -141 |
Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds for Thursday have the Yankees as -135 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5.
The starting pitching matchup for the Yankees vs. Blue Jays series opener features left-hander Carlos Rodon for New York and right-hander Jose Berrios for Toronto.
For my Yankees vs. Blue Jays prediction, I will be looking at the total.
New York Yankees
Rodon's surface-level stats aren't great, but also aren't really indicative of his performance on the mound. The southpaw is 9-4 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP through 16 starts this season.
Not terrible, but his underlying metrics suggest that steep regression is likely. He possesses a 4.58 xERA and ranks in the 16th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
We've already seen this expected regression start to kick in as Rodon has surrendered five or more runs in each of his past two starts. Rodon is 0-2 with a fade-worthy 12.46 ERA and 2.65 WHIP over those outings.
There were also nine or more total runs scored in each of those two games.
Following Rodon is a bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in both FIP and xFIP. The goods news for this pitching staff is that it should receive plenty of run support.
New York ranks in the top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs. That success is likely to continue against Berrios, a pitcher whom this current lineup boasts a .310 BA, a .528 SLG and a .381 wOBA against through 158 combined career plate appearances.
Toronto Blue Jays
Berrios profiles similarly to Rodon in the sense that his analytics also predict regression. Toronto's right-hander possesses a 4.77 xERA and ranks in the 27th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Also like Rodon, Berrios has seen regression kick in over his past two starts, during which he has posted a 7.37 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Additionally, at least nine runs were scored in both of those games.
Those struggles are likely to continue against New York, a team Berrios is 0-4 against over his past four meetings with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.
Meanwhile, the Jays' bullpen is even worse than the Yankees', ranking 25th in ERA, last in FIP and 23rd in xFIP.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Betting Pick & Prediction
The only reason that this total is returning plus money to go Over 8.5 is because Toronto's offense has struggled to get things going this season. However, if there were ever a buy-low spot for this lineup, it would be against the struggling Rodon, who is due for even further regression moving forward.
On the other hand, New York's powerhouse lineup should have no issue teeing off of Berrios. If both starting pitchers get shelled, neither bullpen is likely to bail them out.
The roof at Rogers Centre should be open as the forecast calls for a clear and humid night. That should also help with the over as the forecast calls for 10+ mph winds blowing out to left-center during the game.
Pick: Over 8.5 (+105 at DraftKings | Play to +100)
