White Sox vs. Twins Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -106 | 7.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +158 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -110 | 7.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -192 |
A pair of American League Central rivals will meet for the first of 13 games. Minnesota is off to a 6-3 start and leads the division while the White Sox are struggling to bounce back from last season’s disappointment.
This division has largely been a two-team race between Cleveland and Minnesota over the past six years, but the White Sox have managed to get in the mix over the past two seasons and look to remain there despite what preseason projections indicate.
The first game of a three-game set gets underway at Target Field on Monday afternoon and here is our best bet for the Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins.
Chicago White Sox
Every year of his four-year career has marked a big step forward for Dylan Cease, who has ascended into one of the game’s best starting pitchers. Since his debut in 2019, his ERA has gone from 5.79 to 4.01 to 3.91 to 2.20. He finished runner-up in the AL Cy Young Award voting last season and entered 2023 with the third-best odds for the award.
His first two starts this year did nothing to indicate Cease isn’t headed for another excellent year. He allowed just one run and two hits while striking out 10 batters on Opening Day against the defending World Series Champions. In 11 1/3 innings, he has allowed just two runs on three hits and has 18 punchouts.
Cease has a 97 mph fastball that he pairs with one of the game’s best sliders. He throws his slider over 42% of the time and opponents managed just a .193 wOBA against it with a 43.3% Whiff rate. His slider had a -36 Run Value last year, with the next closest sitting at just -22.
A load of injuries caused the White Sox offense to sputter for the majority of 2022. As a result, Chicago finished 18th in wRC+ last year. Albeit a small size, the White Sox rank third in wRC+ this season. Despite losing former MVP Jose Abreu over the offseason, the White Sox still have star power in Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, and Yoan Moncada. However, the injury bug has already bitten Eloy Jimenez, who is out with a hamstring injury.
Minnesota Twins
Kenta Maeda is going to be a bit difficult to project through the first couple of starts this season. In 2020, he fished as the Cy Young runner-up with a 2.70 ERA and one of the league’s lowest hard-hit rates. He struggled through 2021 before shutting it down to have Tommy John surgery.
After missing the entire 2022 season, Maeda made his season debut against 2022 Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara, and took the loss in a 1-0 pitcher’s duel. However, there should be a reason for optimism from Maeda’s performance in that loss. He went five innings and allowed just one run on three hits. He also struck out nine batters, a mark he reached just twice in 2021.
Maeda's velocity was right where we saw it before the injury, and he continued to mix his fastball, slider and splitter. He also used his sinker more than usual. Based on the extremely small sample size, Maeda looked more like the 2020 version than the 2021 version.
Minnesota’s offense ranked top 10 in wRC+ last year and should be right back up there after retaining shortstop Carlos Correa over the offseason. While I’m not sure if Joey Gallo leading the team in OPS is good or bad, the Twins, led by Correa and Byron Buxton, have a ton of talent.
White Sox vs. Twins Betting Pick
We know Cease is one of the best pitchers in baseball and all of the projections have that accounted for. But gambling is about taking risks and using educated guesses to beat projections and get ahead of the market.
That's precisely what I'm trying to do here with the uncertainty around Maeda. His first start was a 1-0 game where he looked every bit as good as his Cy Young runner-up season. He faced 18 batters and struck out half of them. It's hard to project Maeda, but if he can bounce back to becoming a high-end ace, we should see another pitcher’s duel here.
Chicago’s top bats — Robert, Anderson and Moncada — are a combined 2-for-23 against Maeda in their careers. Meanwhile, Buxton and Correa are a combined 1-for-18 against Cease.
Both of these teams have really strong bullpens behind the starters and despite some of the big names on offense, I am going to back these starting pitchers and take the under of 7.5 on Monday afternoon.
Pick: Under 7.5 |
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