The Washington Nationals visit the New York Mets on September 19, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SNY.
Find my MLB betting preview and Nationals vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Nationals vs Mets Prediction
- Nationals vs Mets pick: Under 8.5
Our Nationals vs Mets prediction is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Mets MLB Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | +185 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | -225 |
Nationals vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Andrew Alvarez (WSN) | Stat | RHP Brandon Sproat (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 1.15/2.46 | ERA /xERA | 2.25/3.30 |
| 3.72/4.46 | FIP / xFIP | 2.48/3.50 |
| 0.83 | WHIP | 1.08 |
| 8.1% | K-BB% | 12.8% |
| 56.8% | GB% | 42.4% |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 113 |
| 104 | Location+ | 91 |
Nationals vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Mets enter as -210 favorites on the moneyline, while the Nationals are priced at +175 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 8.5 total runs.
This is Game 1 of the series, with New York sitting second in the NL East behind the Phillies, while Washington remains last in the division. Andrew Alvarez will get the ball for the Nationals, and Brandon Sproat starts for the Mets. Sproat is coming off the first scoreless outing of his career and is aiming for a third straight quality start.
Our angle for this matchup keys on Evan Abrams’ “Night time Unders with Wind and Recency Bias” system. This system isolates evening games (7:00–11:59 p.m. ET) where the public leans away from the total, recent home scoring has slightly run hot, and natural conditions subtly resist offense.
The Mets’ latest games have trended modestly over, creating recency bias, while wind and temperature signals point to lower-scoring potential.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115, bet365)
Nationals vs Mets Betting Trends
