Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -166 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-155 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +140 |
Let's dive into the Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays odds and make a pick in our MLB betting preview for Saturday, May 11.
The Toronto Blue Jays haven't had an ideal start to their 2024 campaign. Kevin Gausman will pitch for the Blue Jays on Saturday, but although the results have been there, his expected numbers leave a bit to be desired.
Their opponent on Saturday will be the Minnesota Twins. The Twinkies will be throwing prospect Simeon Woods Richardson, who's done a pretty great job. He has issues with keeping the ball on the ground, but his favorable strikeout and walk numbers should go a long way.
Given that the Twins have a tremendous edge in relief, if Woods Richardson can't make it too deep into the game, the Twins have some value.
Minnesota Twins
Woods Richardson holds a 1.74 ERA against a 3.73 xERA. Simply put, negative regression could be in the card for the young righty, but his expected numbers are still decent. His ground-ball rate and Average Exit Velocity are not enviable, but he strikes out plenty of hitters, while not letting his pitch count accrue too quickly via the walk.
He's gone at least five innings in all but one start, so he could do the same here against a lackluster Toronto batting order.
The Twins are decent against right-handed pitching this year. They maintain a 104 wRC+ and 8.9% walk rate. The injuries to Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton are a letdown, but this lineup still has five batters with a .320+ xwOBA and one other above .315.
This should be more than enough against Gausman, who's due for some bad luck at this juncture.
In relief, the Twins have dominated, and Jhoan Duran is back in the mix after an IL stint. Overall, the Twins’ bullpen has thrown over 130 innings and owns a 3.50 xFIP and 29.4% strikeout percentage.
Walks may be an issue for some, but Minnesota has several options it can put forth after Woods Richardson leaves the game.
Toronto Blue Jays
Gausman was the ace of the Toronto staff before this year, but his performances has been underwhelming. He's seen an increase in barrel rate and a significant decrease in strikeout rate.
His walk rate is still exceptional, but otherwise, there's a reason his xERA is over 5.00 while his ERA is 3.78. This is concerning because he could maybe struggle in the next few starts, especially against a patient Minnesota lineup.
The Blue Jays have really had some trouble with righties this season. They have a 90 wRC+ and 9.3% walk rate. Overall, they don't strike out much, but this is where the good news may end.
The top of the lineup does the heavy lifting. They have five bats with a .320+ xwOBA, but notable names like Alejandro Kirk, Bo Bichette and George Springer haven't looked like themselves at all.
This may cause issues against a righty like Woods Richardson, who keeps the ball in the strike zone and misses bats.
Adding on, Toronto has a relatively high ground-ball rate and low hard-hit rate, so the Jays may not take advantage of Woods Richardson's weaknesses.
In relief, Toronto has been abysmal. It has a bullpen xFIP of 4.60 with nearly a 10% walk rate and only a 19% strikeout rate.
Yimi García is the only relief arm under a 4.00 xFIP and Chad Green being on the IL doesn't help.
Twins vs Blue Jays
Betting Pick & Prediction
Minnesota checks the boxes against Toronto in this matchup. Woods Richardson actually has more favorable peripherals than Gausman at the moment.
Otherwise, the Twins have a better lineup off of righties, despite injuries to key players. In addition, Minnesota has a far better relief staff for when Woods Richardson exits.
This line is too favorable for Gausman, so take Minnesota to +100.
Pick: Twins +128 (Play to +100)
