Twins vs. Astros Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -106 | 8 -120 / -102 | -1.5 +146 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 8 -120 / -102 | +1.5 -176 |
If I told you one of these teams sits atop its division two months into the season, you would likely assume it's the Astros. However, the Twins lead a weak AL Central while Houston is looking up at the Rangers in the AL West.
That doesn't mean the season hasn’t gone well for the defending World Series champions. The Astros (31-22) have a better record than the Twins (28-26) and have been looking like themselves lately, winning 14 of their last 18 games.
Minnesota got a big win in extra innings on Monday to begin the series, but let’s take a look at who has the advantage on Tuesday night.
Minnesota Twins
The starting pitcher advantage on Tuesday goes Minnesota’s way.
Joe Ryan is off to a 7-1 start and ranks fifth in the league with a 2.21 ERA — his 2.36 xERA illustrates how truly dominant he has been. Ryan has the fourth-best odds to win the AL Cy Young Award, behind only Shane McClanahan, Gerrit Cole and Shohei Ohtani.
Ryan has increased his chase rate from 28% to 37.5%, which ranks in the 98th percentile. That jump is the largest increase among all starting pitchers from last season to this season. He has completely reworked his pitch mix this year. Ryan swapped out his changeup for a dominant splitter, and has increased his sweeper use while nearly eliminating his slider (his worst pitch last year).
A huge benefit of Ryan generating more chases is that he has walked just 10 batters through 61 innings. He throws a ton of strikes, and when he leaves the zone, he is getting swings and misses. Opponents who do make contact have struggled to get the barrel on the ball. Ryan has only allowed four home runs all year.
Offensively, the Twins have been the beneficiary of Joey Gallo’s regained power and a — knock on wood — still healthy Byron Buxton. Minnesota is just 24th with a team batting average of .233, but it ranks seventh with 74 home runs.
Houston Astros
Early injuries have thrust Brandon Bielak into the starting rotation; he will be making his fifth start and sixth appearance of the season. He has been solid when called upon, sporting a 3.55 ERA, and he has held opponents to two runs or fewer in four of his five outings.
A peek under the curtain, however, shows Bielak has been a bit lucky. He has an xERA of 5.99 and he has allowed 30 hits and nine walks in 25 1/3 innings. He ranks in the bottom 20% in Hard Hit rate and bottom 10% in xwOBA.
Bielak throws three pitches — fastball, sinker, slider — at least 20% of the time. All three have allowed an average above .300 to opponents. His 15.4% barrel rate is one of the highest in the league.
It is a bit shocking to see the Astros all the way down at 22nd in wOBA and 18th in wRC+. Consistently one of the league’s top offenses over the last few years, Houston has started the year slow. Alex Bregman and Jeremy Pena are off to sluggish starts while Jose Altuve just recently returned from injuries.
At least they haven't had to worry about Yordan Alvarez, who has 14 home runs and a wRC+ over 176.
Twins vs. Astros Betting Pick
The offenses have been fairly similar this year. The Twins rank 14th in wRC+ while the Astros rank 18th, and they sit 19th and 22nd in wOBA, respectively. Minnesota will have the advantage of better splits, ranking in the top 10 against right-handed pitchers; Houston has been better against left-handers.
While Minnesota likely has a slight edge at the plate, it has a massive edge on the mound. Ryan has the type of stuff that could win him a Cy Young Award. He has excelled at getting opponents to chase, which is notable as Houston has the 10th-highest chase rate.
Bielak is a replacement-level starter, and he has given up a ton of hard contact. The Twins have the fifth-highest barrel rate in the league. They should be able to get a hold of a few against Bielak and his struggling pitch mix. Houston is excellent defensively, but against a Minnesota team that hits the ball hard and hits the ball in the air, glovework can’t do much when the ball leaves the yard.
Give me Ryan and the Twins to come away with the win on Tuesday night as a short favorite.
Pick: Twins ML (-116 | Bet to -130) |
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