We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough that I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Minor League Baseball Best Bets
Columbus Clippers @ Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Friday, 6:45 PM ET
One of my favorite Triple-A angles each season is getting ahead of a team losing its best players to the MLB Futures Game.
The Futures Game kicks off All-Star weekend and features some of the top prospects from each Minor League level. Many of these guys are from Double-A or lower, but a handful of Triple-A guys will attend.
In fact, every year there are one or two teams in Triple-A that essentially lose their best player (or players) for the final weekend of the first half — the game is on Sunday, which means players leave their teams on Friday or Saturday.
I think Columbus is going to be one of the teams hit the hardest this season.
The Guardians will send a pair of Triple-A guys to the Futures Game in Cooper Ingle and Ralphy Velasquez.
Ingle has been up in the bigs for a few weeks now, so the Guardians have been playing without him. That promotion came a week after Khalil Watson was called up, so I’ve downgraded the Columbus lineup over the past weeks.
The Clippers still have some solid players, but the guy holding the lineup together has been Velasquez, who regularly hits cleanup as the most imposing hitter. Take him away, and suddenly, Columbus is without Watson, Ingle, and Velasquez.
That might not seem like a big deal against an average Lehigh Valley team, but the IronPigs have some of their better pitchers lined up to start this weekend. Additionally, the Pigs have had virtually the same roster for the whole season.
I love the spot for Lehigh Valley on Friday night behind Andrew Painter.
The Phillies demoted the former first-round pick to work on his mechanics, and he’s been fantastic in two starts at Triple-A. Painter is likely eager to win his spot back in Philly’s rotation, so tonight is a huge opportunity for the 23-year-old Southpaw — not having to face Velasquez makes it even easier.
I think that leads to a big win for Lehigh Valley on Friday night. Also, Chuck King and Drake Fellows aren’t terrible options to back over the Weekend.
Lehigh Valley is one of the better-attended Triple-A stadiums, and I think the IronPigs have a big weekend in front of sold-out crowds at Coca-Cola Park.
Pick: Lehigh Valley ML
Tacoma Rainiers @ Las Vegas Aviators
Friday, 10:05 PM ET
Tacoma significantly upgraded its offense earlier this week, which is especially notable given the Rainiers have been among the worst offenses in the Pacific Coast League this season.
Since Colt Emerson was called up to Seattle, Tacoma has been a bottom-tier lineup. But that all changed once Double-A studs Lazardo Montes and Michael Arroyo got the call-up to Triple-A.
While both struggled in their respective Triple-A debuts on Tuesday, Arroyo has been white-hot since then, and so has the Tacoma offense, which put up nine runs on Wednesday and 18 on Thursday.
I think these additions have injected some juice into the lineup.
Additionally, Las Vegas Ballpark is one of the best run-scoring environments at the Triple-A level, and the Aviators don’t have much pitching at the moment, so I expect the Rainiers to stay hot this weekend.
I’d love to find some decent spots to back Tacoma over the weekend, but the Rainiers also don’t have much pitching. Seattle is loaded with arms at the big-league level, but all the prospect pitching is at Double-A or lower.
Las Vegas recently lost Joshua Kuroda-Grauer to the A’s, which is a huge loss, but the lineup remains loaded.
Getting Joey Meneses back has been huge, as he’s been a beast at the Triple-A level this season. Tommy White is another big-time prospect. Cade Marlowe is also having a big season at this level. Catcher Brian Serven is running a .928 OPS. Jared Dickey is a recently promoted bat from Double-A who has upside.
Las Vegas has won the PCL in back-to-back seasons, and it’s because this organization seems to have a revolving door of high-upside bats. This wave of talent is no different, and I think we’ll see Vegas score just as much as Tacoma over the weekend.
Although this total could open in the 14.5-run range, it might still be too low.
Pick: Over
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Lehigh Valley ML (vs. Columbus, 6:45 PM ET)
- Tacoma vs Las Vegas Over (10:05 PM ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
