We���re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
I'm 26-20 betting on Triple-A baseball this season, good for +10.98 units of profit.
Norfolk Tides @ Gwinnett Stripers
Tuesday, 6:35 PM ET
I think Norfolk will be a live ‘dog this week.
The Tides have two of the best starting pitchers at the Triple-A level right now, with Yaqui Rivera (who could pitch twice this week on Tuesday and Sunday) and Nestor German.
Additionally, the Tides lineup should take a step forward based on some of the added and returning personnel. Norfolk started the year with arguably the worst lineup at the Triple-A level, but things have changed.
Heston Kjerstad recently returned from injury. The Orioles traded for Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who is now Norfolk’s best hitter. Jonathan Rodriguez was sent down to free up some space on the big league roster, and he’s running an .870 OPS at Triple-A. Creed Willems is the one relevant prospect on this Norfolk roster, and he’s rounding into form. The Orioles recently signed veteran Tommy Pham, who should produce at this level.
This lineup is all-around better than it’s been all season, and I don’t think the books have caught up yet.
The ideal spots to back Norfolk this week will be when Rivera or German is on the mound.
Pick: Norfolk Tides +1.5
Louisville Bats @ Memphis Redbirds
Tuesday, 8:05 PM ET
I’m interested to see how this series gets priced, as these are two of the International League’s better teams.
That being said, Memphis is the better team right now, as Louisville’s roster has been watered down with trades and call-ups.
The biggest blow came over the weekend when Edwin Arroyo was called up to make his Major League debut. Given he’s replacing the injured Elly De La Cruz, Louisville won’t be getting someone sent back in return.
Louisville has been carried recently by the trio of Arroyo, Hector Rodriguez, and Noelvi Marte, but Arroyo has been the best out of those three. Losing guys to the MLB level is part of the game in Triple-A ball, but this call-up will be a crushing blow to the Bats, and it will take some time before the books adjust.
On the other hand, Memphis has been really good all season, and the roster is mostly intact.
The Cardinals are a young team playing good ball, so there hasn’t been a need for many call-ups. Because of that, guys like Blaze Jordan, Cesar Prieto, and Joshua Baez are having great seasons in the Minors, but they will continue to produce at this level because they need to play every day, and they can’t do that with St. Louis.
Memphis also has a strong pitching staff, which is rare among Triple-A teams this season. The Redbirds have a legit starting rotation and several legit high-leverage relievers.
In a battle of two good teams, Memphis has the edge, especially at home.
Pick: Memphis Redbirds ML
Indianapolis Indians @ Saint Paul Saints
Tuesday, 8:07 PM ET
Saint Paul’s lineup is loaded, but the Saints have no pitching. Unfortunately, that makes them a tough team to handicap.
But I’m down to back them against an Indians team that isn’t very good.
There isn’t really a single “name” starting pitcher on the Saints' roster, but that helps them in the market, as we’ll get shorter prices (no SP tax).
Saint Paul will give up crooked numbers this week, but a lineup filled with the likes of Kaelen Culpepper, Hendry Mendez, Gabe Gonzalez, Royce Lewis, Kyler Fedko, Matt Wallner, Ben Ross, and Ricardo Olivar will absolutely rake.
I don’t think Indianapolis has the arms to handle that All-Star lineup.
We might see some fireworks in this series, but with Saint Paul getting the final at-bat, give me the Saints every time.
Pick: Saint Paul Saints ML
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Norfolk Tides +1.5 (@ Gwinnett, 6:35 PM ET)
- Memphis ML (vs. Louisville, 8:05 PM ET)
- Saint Paul ML (vs. Indianapolis, 8:07 PM ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A Baseball
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
