The Washington Nationals host the Toronto Blue Jays on July 28, 2026. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NATS.
The Nationals are favored by -142 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Blue Jays are +119 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Nationals Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Nationals Pick: Under 8.5
My Blue Jays vs Nationals best bet is on game totals. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Nationals Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8.5 -123o / +103u | +119 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8.5 -123o / +103u | -142 |
- Blue Jays vs Nationals moneyline: Blue Jays +119, Nationals -142
- Blue Jays vs Nationals over/under: 8.5 (-123o / +103u)
- Blue Jays vs Nationals spread: Nationals -1.5 (+145 ), Blue Jays +1.5 (-175)
Blue Jays vs Nationals Probable Pitchers
| RHP Shane Bieber (TOR) | Stat | RHP Cade Cavalli (WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 7-4 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.7 |
| 4.70 / 7.23 | ERA / xERA | 3.58 / 3.95 |
| 5.82 / 4.60 | FIP / xFIP | 3.12 / 3.39 |
| 7.6% | K-BB% | 19.5% |
| 45.9% | GB% | 47.9% |
| .275 | BABIP | .338 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 98 | Location+ | 97 |
Blue Jays vs Nationals MLB Betting Preview, Analysis
If we get hit with rain today, hopefully it bails us out of a 4-3 or 5-0 game in the fifth inning. That sweat from the Mets game last night — where Jared Young struck out looking with the bases loaded to keep us alive before the weather hit — was a bit too close for comfort. But thankfully, we got to the window.
Today, I’m targeting the Under 9 (down to 8.5 at -105) between the Blue Jays and Nationals, a line I project closer to 8.2.
The pitching matchup drives this edge. Shane Bieber struggled mightily when he first returned, but he has looked much healthier over his last two starts, with his velocity creeping back up. His expected FIP has dropped sub-4.00 in each of those two outings, giving me far more confidence in his form.
On the other side, Cade Cavalli has been borderline elite. Over his last five starts, he’s posted a 32% K-BB rate alongside a 2.00 xFIP.
From an offensive standpoint:
- Blue Jays: All contact, virtually no power, but backed by one of the best elite defensive units in baseball to steal away hits.
- Nationals: High power, but bogged down by bad play discipline and poor contact metrics.
The biggest risk here is Washington’s bullpen. They rank 30th in my projections with a 4.70 weighted FIP. However, Cavalli has been going deep enough into games to neutralize that concern and keep this total intact.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105)
