Tigers vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Pick
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-136 | 8 -114o / -106u | -1.5 +116 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+116 | 8 -114o / -106u | +1.5 -140 |
The Detroit Tigers have hit a bit of a snag over the last couple of weeks with nine losses in 12 games, and they will now head back on the road to take on an Arizona team that is finding its form once again.
With their ace on the hill for this one, can the Tigers find a way through for a rare victory?
Let's break down the best way to bet on Tigers vs. Diamondbacks below.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers haven't been totally unsightly at the plate this season, and plenty of guys — like Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter — have had their shine from time to time. Over the last two weeks, however, it's a struggle to find a reason to love this team.
Detroit is 27th in wRC+ over that span with a low 7.7% walk rate and .120 Isolated Power. It hasn't struck out in an inordinate number of at-bats, either, which makes the power numbers all the more painful given nothing is really happening when the ball comes back into play. The Tigers are putting weak swings on the ball, but, on the bright side, so are the hitters who oppose Tarik Skubal.
The lefty has been indomitable this season with a 2.02 ERA and 2.12 xERA, pitching to one of the lowest Expected Batting Averages around with elite strikeout and walk numbers. This man is nearly flawless, with my only slight critique being his lack of consistent ground balls. Still, nobody is squaring this guy up, so that doesn't really factor in a whole lot here. He looks like he might be the best pitcher in baseball.
Arizona Diamondbacks
On the other side of this matchup we have Ryne Nelson, who has been the polar opposite of Skubal. The right-hander has thrown a mix of delightfully hittable fastballs to the tune of a .301 xBA and insane .502 xSLG. The ball is coming back quite hard off the bat, and while he's not really walking anyone, there is little reason for opposing batters to take pitches. Nelson is throwing a ton of strikes and serving up lasers, something that we unfortunately saw out of him last year as well.
The offense for Arizona is quite perplexing. It was not very good a year ago, grading out right around average prior to its World Series run, and while technically above average this season, the Diamondbacks still find themselves with a 105 wRC+ which is slowly creeping down towards the mean with an uninspiring last two weeks at the dish.
Arizona's big thing is that it isn't striking out and stringing together a lot of hits, but despite hitting .245 for the season with a 19.8% strikeout rate, it is down at .235 with a 22.5% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. The Diamondbacks do hold good splits against lefties, but I still feel it's too early to flip the handicap here around on account of a sample that's growing in size.
Tigers vs. Diamondbacks
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Diamondbacks are not hitting the ball well and have a very tall task ahead of them on Friday in Skubal, who may be the best pitcher in baseball right now. They also don't have much confidence in their starter, and, even with Detroit's struggles at the plate, I think there is enough here in the power and strikeout departments for the season to believe the road team can get to Nelson.
I will continue to fade the Diamondbacks' offense whenever I get a good chance to, considering we have over a year's worth of data which tells us they're nothing more than mediocre, and Friday night is a golden opportunity with a very affordable price on the Tigers.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline (-135)
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