On Thursday, Bobby Witt Jr. and Brandon Lowe are a pair of hitters in great spots that I'll be backing.
However, we'll begin the day in Miami with Edward Cabrera taking on the Diamondbacks.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for Thursday, April 17
MLB Prop Picks — Thursday, April 17
- Edward Cabrera Over 2.5 Walks (+128, bet365)
- Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105, DraftKings)
- Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145, DraftKings)
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Player Props: Cabrera to Issue Walks
After starting the season on the IL, Cabrera worked 5 2/3 innings, allowing four hits and two earned runs. However, he also issued three walks.
With his first out today, Cabrera will reach 300 innings for his career, but he's allowed 171 walks. He's allowed 50 walks or more in fewer than 100 innings in each of the last two years.
Last season, the Diamondbacks were third in walk rate and they're also third to begin this season as well.
In two career starts against the Diamondbacks, Cabrera has allowed seven walks in 9 1/3 innings. He went six innings in his last start against them and worked into the sixth inning in his last outing.
If he works into the sixth inning today, he'll likely issue three walks for the third straight time against Arizona.
Royals vs Tigers Player Props: Witt Set to Beat Olson Again
After finishing second in MVP voting last season, Witt is off to another fast start. He's hitting .310 with seven runs batted in and a .876 OPS. He's currently on a nine-game hitting streak, and you have to like his chances to extend that streak considering his success against Reese Olson.
Witt is 6-for-11 with a double, triple, two home runs, six runs batted in and a 1.902 OPS against Olson, who's off to a slow start.
After pitching to a 3.53 ERA in 112 1/3 innings last season, Olson has a 6.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP through his first three starts. He's allowed 17 hits in 15 innings thus far and right-handers are hitting .310 against him.
While Witt has just two home runs on the year so far, four of his six hits against Olson have gone for extra bases. He also has seven extra-base hits in 21 games at Comerica Park, a park that plays well for his speed.
He's cleared this line in six of his last nine games, and I like his chances to keep that trend going on Thursday.
Yankees vs Rays Player Props: Lowe in Prime Spot vs. Righty
The Rays will host the Yankees for the first time at Steinbrenner Field. Like Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, Steinbrenner Field is 314 feet down the right field line.
With that in mind, Lowe is a left-hander I'll be targeting on Thursday.
Lowe enters Thursday's game with hits in seven of his last nine starts. He has just one hit against a left-handed pitcher in 10 at-bats this season, but he has three home runs and 11 runs batted in against right-handers thus far.
While those sample sizes are small thus far, that actually tracks with Lowe's splits over the last few years.
Since the start of the 2023 season, 40 of the 46 home runs Lowe has hit have been against right-handers.
On Thursday, he faces Will Warren, who's allowed a double, triple and home run among five hits allowed to left-handed hitters in his first three starts.
Last season, lefties slashed .349/.442/.581 with four doubles and two home runs against him.
He had a 14.59 ERA in four appearances at Yankee Stadium, where the short porch was a factor.
Lowe is +450 on DraftKings tonight for his fourth home run this season. However, we're also getting a great price on his total bases, as he should have four or five opportunities to cash while batting second.
