The Seattle Mariners host the Texas Rangers on Friday, August 1, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on RSN and MLB.TV.
The Mariners enter as -192 favorites on the moneyline, while the Rangers come in at +156 to pull off the upset. The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 7.5 total runs.
Find my Rangers vs Mariners prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Rangers vs Mariners Prediction
- Rangers vs. Mariners picks: Under 7.5 (-115 via Fanatics)
My Mariners vs. Rangers vs best bet is under 7.5 runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rangers vs Mariners Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -139 | 7.5 -107o / -113u | +156 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 7.5 -107o / -113u | -192 |
Rangers vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jack Leiter (TEX | Stat | RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-6 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 4.09 / 4.78 | ERA /xERA | 3.36 / 2.74 |
| 4.40 / 4.76 | FIP / xFIP | 2.86 / 2.38 |
| 1.32 | WHIP | 1.00 |
| 9.6% | K-BB% | 29.8% |
| 37% | GB% | 41.5% |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 91 | Location+ | 112 |
Rangers vs Mariners MLB Betting Preview
Texas Rangers Betting Preview: Leiter Stepping up for Rangers
The Rangers have turned to former top prospect Jack Leiter more frequently this season, and while the results have been mixed, the flashes of dominance are impossible to ignore.
Leiter enters the matchup with a 7–6 record and a 4.09 ERA through 92 1/3 innings.
His 83 strikeouts underscore the swing-and-miss potential that made him a first-round pick, but it’s the 11.4% walk rate and modest 37% groundball rate that continue to raise concerns.
He’s managed back-to-back quality starts after the all-star break, going six innings in both starts and allowing just one and two earned runs, respectively.
A few starts prior, he faced this Mariners lineup and went six innings, striking out seven and allowing one earned run. Over his last five starts, he holds a 3.00 ERA and a 27% K-rate while holding opponents to a .221 batting average.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Gilbert's Metrics Show Room for Improvement
Opposing Leiter is the Mariners’ ace Logan Gilbert, who is having yet another strong season, posting a 3.36 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP through 14 starts, but his advanced metrics signal it should be even better.
He sits in the 93rd percentile in xERA at 2.74, 93rd percentile in opponent xBA at .201, and 97th percentile in K% at 37%. His FIP sits at 2.86, and his xFIP sits at 2.38, supporting the idea that he’s not just getting by with luck or defense.
At home, however, he’s been nearly unhittable. He holds a 1.94 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 41% K-rate and has limited his opponents to an absurd .132 batting average with a .250 slugging percentage.
Gilbert isn’t overpowering with velocity, but his pitch mix, location precision and sequencing allow him to stay ahead of hitters and control the game. He owns a 41% groundball rate and ranks near the top of the league in strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Rangers vs Mariners Pick, Betting Analysis
Both pitchers will be aided by some extremely friendly pitching conditions in what is already one of the most difficult ballparks for hitters.
T-Mobile Park has been the most profitable stadium for the under over the last 20-plus seasons.
On top of this, the Rangers put up a goose egg last night, which, along with the weather conditions, has triggered a few extremely profitable Betting Insider systems.
System: Visiting underdogs off a shutout, wind not blowing out (61% win rate, 17% ROI)
Visitor scored 0 runs in their previous game
Home team’s ML is between -110 and -275
The wind is not blowing “out,” “to left,” or “to right”
Total is between 6.5 and 10
The under is receiving no more than 60% of public bets
System: T-Mobile Park unders, low total (59% win rate, 13% ROI)
Game is being played at T-Mobile Park
The home team is favored, up to -300
Average temperature is below 75 degrees
The total is between 6.5 and 7.5
This basic system by itself is still extremely profitable, but if the Mariners went under the closing total in their previous game, it gets even better, jumping to a 64% win rate and a 23% ROI.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-115 · Fanatics)
Moneyline
We have no bet on the Moneyline
Run Line (Spread)
We're taking no picks on the Spread
Over/Under
We are taking Under 7.5
