The Texas Rangers (63-65) and Kansas City Royals (65-62) will face off in the MLB this afternoon. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on RSN.
Kansas City is a -120 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Texas is +100 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 9 total runs.
Continue below for my Rangers vs Royals predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, August 21, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Rangers vs Royals Prediction, Picks
- Rangers vs Royals pick: Under 9 Runs (-105)
My Royals vs. Rangers best bet is on the under, with the best price currently available at Fanatics. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rangers vs Royals Odds for Thursday, August 21
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 9 -115o / -105u | +100 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 9 -115o / -105u | -120 |
Rangers vs Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Patrick Corbin (TEX) | Stat | RHP Michael Lorenzen (KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-9 | W-L | 5-8 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 4.45 / 4.52 | ERA / xERA | 4.43 / 4.26 |
| 4.36 / 4.25 | FIP / xFIP | 4.53 / 4.36 |
| 1.38 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 11.6 | K-BB% | 12.9 |
| 37.6 | GB% | 38.9 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 101 | Location+ | 102 |
Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals MLB Preview
All three games of this series so far have produced nine runs or fewer.
Both offenses are in the bottom 10 this season in wRC+, with Texas sitting at the 25th spot and Kansas City ranking 26th.
The Royals have a wRC+ of 90 this season, but that rating drops to 79 when facing left-handed pitchers, and they will go against Patrick Corbin this afternoon.
The Rangers might have some problems as well against Kansas City starter Michael Lorenzen, who holds a 3.26 ERA across his previous seven outings and a 3.40 ERA at home.
Also, both bullpens have been very effective in 2025, with the Rangers ranking fifth with a 3.60 ERA and the Royals just two places behind with 3.67.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation for the under today.
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting.
It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity —ranging from 45 to 95— intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game over rate sitting below 40, suggesting low offensive rhythm.
The market has subtly corrected as well, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest, between 6 and 29.
These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Rangers vs Royals Best Bet
- Under 9 (-105)
Rangers vs Royals Betting Trends
For the latest on MLB injuries, be sure to check out our MLB Injury Report page.
