The Tampa Bay Rays (71-73) and Philadelphia Phillies (86-58) will play in game two of their three-game interleague series on Tuesday. The Phillies won game one, 2-1. First pitch on Tuesday is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Bally Sports Sun and NBC Sports Philadelphia.
Tampa Bay is likely out of the postseason hunt but still fighting to stay alive. With 18 games left, the Rays are 12 games out of the AL East lead and five games out of the final AL wild-card spot. The Phillies are in a much different position as they are creeping closer to locking up their division and may get the one seed in the National League. The Phillies have a seven game lead over the Mets in the NL East and are tied with the Dodgers for the best record in the NL entering Tuesday.
Let’s dive into my Rays vs Phillies predictions and F5 pick for Tuesday, September 10.
Rays-Phillies Prediction
- Rays-Phillies picks: Phillies F5 -0.5 (-110 | Play to -120)
My Rays vs Phillies best bet is on Phillies F5 -0.5, where I see value at -110. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+144 | 7.5 -102o / -120u | +1.5 -140 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-172 | 7.5 -102o / -120u | -1.5 +116 |
- Rays-Phillies Moneyline: Rays +144 | Phillies -172
- Rays-Phillies Over/Under: 7.5 total runs (-102o / -120u)
- Rays-Phillies Spread: Rays +1.5 (-140) | Phillies -1.5 (+116)
Rays at Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| Taj Bradley (RHP) | Stat | Ranger Suarez (LHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-10 | W-L | 12-6 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.5 |
| 4.40 / 4.22 | ERA /xERA | 2.90 / 3.17 |
| 4.22 / 3.61 | FIP / xFIP | 3.08 / 3.09 |
| 1.21 | WHIP | 1.07 |
| 18.9% | K-BB% | 18.8% |
| 41.4% | GB% | 52.6% |
| 116 | Stuff+ | 82 |
| 98 | Location+ | 104 |
Cody Goggin's Rays-Phillies Preview Prediction
Rays Betting Preview: Strikeouts Not the Problem for Taj Bradley
Taj Bradley is Tampa Bay’s starter tonight. The 23-year-old is in his second season in the Majors and has posted a 4.40 ERA, 4.22 xERA, and a 4.22 FIP. Bradley has a Stuff+ of 116 and has struck out 131 batters in 116 2/3 innings.
Bradley’s main problem this season has been his pitch location leading to hard contact. Bradley has a Location+ of 98 and has a barrel rate allowed ranking in the seventh percentile among qualified pitchers. He also has a hard-hit rate ranking in the 17th percentile and an average exit velocity in the first percentile.
Tampa Bay’s offense ranks 21st in wRC+ and 26th in wOBA this season. They strike out at the fifth-highest rate but walk at the eighth-highest rate.
The Rays rank 25th in hard-hit rate, 20th in barrel rate, and 26th in average exit velocity. They also rank 10th in ground ball rate, which isn’t a good sign for Tuesday's matchup.
The many moves that Tampa Bay made to their lineup at the trade deadline have not paid off. Over the past 30 days, Tampa ranks 28th in wRC+ and 30th in wOBA. They are still striking out often during this timeframe but have dropped to 23rd in walk rate over the last month.
Phillies Betting Preview: Ranger Suarez Succeeds Without Premium Velocity
Ranger Suarez will pitch for the Phillies on Tuesday. Suarez is having a strong campaign, with an ERA of just 2.90. His xERA of 3.17 and FIP of 3.08 largely back up this performance.
The left-hander has a Stuff+ mark of 82 but a Location+ mark of 104. This is primarily due to Suarez being a sinker-curveball-heavy pitcher and ranking in just the 11th percentile in fastball velocity (91.2 mph on average). Despite ranking in the 21st percentile in whiff rate, he ranks in the 64th percentile in strikeout rate.
Suarez has a 5.8% walk rate this year, ranking in the 84th percentile. He also ranks in the 91st percentile in barrel rate allowed, 84th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 88th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, and 92nd percentile in ground ball rate.
The Phillies rank eighth in wRC+, fourth in wOBA, sixth in SLG, and ninth in ISO this season. They have the seventh-best walk rate and rank slightly better than the league average regarding strikeout rate.
Philadelphia ranks 10th in hard-hit rate, 18th in barrel rate, and 13th in average exit velocity. The Phillies have the eighth-highest ground ball rate this year and the fifth-highest line drive rate, often struggling to elevate the ball.
The offense has been even better over the last 30 days, ranking fourth in the league with a wRC+ of 115. Over this period, they also rank second in wOBA, fourth in SLG, second in OBP, and ninth in ISO.
Rays-Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis: First Five Innings
The Phillies are heavy favorites tonight, as they should be.
Suarez has a great matchup in front of him, as the Rays’ offense wasn’t good this season and has faded down the stretch. They don’t hit the ball particularly hard and have been bad over the last month, so I think that Suarez has a great chance of turning in a strong start against this team at home.
On the other side, I like Bradley’s stuff as a pitcher but his struggles with location and allowing hard contact likely aren’t a good match for this Philadelphia offense. They don’t strike out at a crazy clip, which I think will end up helping them be able to put balls in play against Bradley and put some runs on the board.
My favorite bet in this matchup is the Phillies on the first five-inning run line. I think that the Phillies will be able to get out to a lead over the first half of this game with both the better pitcher on the mound and the better offense in this game.
Pick: Phillies F5 -0.5 (-110, BetMGM) | Play to F5 -0.5 (-120)
Moneyline
Tampa Bay has played one game under .500 both at home and on the road. The Phillies have been markedly stronger at home as they are 48-25 in Philadelphia while they are just 38-33 away from home.
I’m not looking to bet the full game moneyline at -175 on the Phillies but I would lean toward them in this matchup. I still like Suarez over this Rays’ offense but he also hasn’t completed over six innings since June 14th, so I wouldn’t count on him going too deep.
Run Line (Spread)
The Phillies are 35-38 against the spread this season at home, while the Rays are 37-32 ATS on the road. Overall the Rays have been one of the better teams ATS this season at 78-66 ATS.
At +130, I do see some value on the Phillies for the full game online despite liking the F5 lines better. The Phillies have a league-average bullpen, ranking 15th in bullpen ERA, while the Rays are seventh-best. I do think that there is enough of a difference in this starting pitcher matchup to warrant a run-line bet at plus money, however.
Additionally, the Phillies are 5th in bullpen xFIP while the Rays are 24th, so there is a chance that Philadelphia’s bullpen is better going forward as well.
Over/Under
Games at Citizens Bank Park are 38-31-4 to the under this season. The Rays have been an under team all year at 65-74-5 to the over, and the Rays road unders are 39-30 this season.
I put this total at exactly 7.5 so I don’t see any value on the total either way here. I would stay away from this total as I don’t have a strong lean one way or the other.
Rays-Phillies Betting Trends
- 89% of the bets and 83% of the money are on the Phillies moneyline.
- 94% of the bets and 93% of the money are on the over (7.5).
- 91% of the bets and 95% of the money are on the Phils to cover the run line (-1.5).
Rays Betting Trends
- The Rays are 71-73 on the moneyline this season.
- The Rays are 9-1 on the run line over their past 10 games.
Phillies Betting Trends
- The Phillies are 86-58 on the moneyline this season.
- The Phillies are 7-3 in their past 10 games but just 4-6 on the run line during the stretch.
