The Cleveland Guardians host the Tampa Bay Rays on April 29, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on RAYS.
The Guardians are favored by -122 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Rays are +102 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rays vs Guardians Prediction
- Rays vs Guardians Pick: Rays ML (play to -140)
My Rays vs Guardians best bet is on Tampa Bay to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Guardians Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +169 | 7 100o / -120u | +102 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -207 | 7 100o / -120u | -122 |
- Rays vs Guardians moneyline: Rays +102, Guardians -122
- Rays vs Guardians over/under: 7 (+100 / -120)
- Rays vs Guardians spread: Rays -1.5 (+169), Guardians +1.5 (-207)
Rays vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| RHP Drew Rasmussen (TB) | Stat | RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | W-L | 4-1 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 2.45 / 2.65 | ERA / xERA | 3.28 / 4.10 |
| 4.10 / 3.03 | FIP / xFIP | 4.45 / 3.51 |
| 22.4% | K-BB% | 13.4% |
| 49.3% | GB% | 50.6% |
| .159 | BABIP | .192 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 119 | Location+ | 102 |
Rays vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Rays vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
The Rays are hunting down the Yankees for first place in the American League East. I could see them not only hanging around in the AL East, but winning it.
One of the main reasons for that belief? Stud starter Drew Rasmussen. The former All-Star is on his way to another bid in the midsummer classic. He boasts a 2.45 ERA with a 2.65 xERA and a 4.10 FIP.
The only issue for Rasmussen this year is the long ball, allowing 1.75 homers per nine. On the flip side, he walks just 1.40 per nine, while striking out 9.12. The Rays will live with the occasional long ball, especially a solo one.
I view this year's Rays offense like I did the Blue Jays last year — with a little less power. They walk at a strong 10% rate while striking out just 18% of the time. That puts pressure on opposing pitchers to stay in the zone. If they can't, the middle to lower half hitters in the Tampa lineup can quickly end up at second or third base using their speed.
Since April 14th, the Rays are 15th in MLB with a 105 wRC+. Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda have hit the cover off the ball in those two weeks, combining for 10 homers. Several of the contributing players, including Jake Fraley, Johnny DeLuca, and Ryan Vilade, have also performed very well.
On the mound for the Guardians is fireballing right-hander Gavin Williams. He gave up six runs to the Blue Jays in his last outing, boosting his ERA to 3.28. He also has a 4.10 xERA and a 4.45 FIP, which point towards looming regression.
This matchup spells disaster for Williams. He throws absolute gas and punches out 11.1 batters per nine, but this Rays team doesn't strike out. He also walks 4.79 per nine, and the Rays will gladly work Williams's pitch count and force a struggling Guardians bullpen into action.
My long-term concern is this Guardians lineup. They had their chances in the first two games of this series in almost identical scenarios — and the nightmare of Cleveland fans happened again, failing to score in clutch moments. On Monday, the Guardians had runners on second and third with one out in the ninth and punched out twice. The following night, they had bases loaded in the 8th with one out, and Chase DeLauter punched out before Jose Ramirez flew out.
The Guardians absolute ceiling is a league-average offense, which it was early in the year. In the last two weeks, Cleveland has fallen to 20th in wRC+. That feels more like the sweet spot for this Guardians team. To put up runs, they need small ball, stealing bases, pushing the envelope, and making the most of each opportunity. They failed to do that in the first two games against Tampa.
Daniel Schnemann leads the Guardians with a 231 wRC+ in those two weeks, while Jose Ramirez and Bryan Rocchio boast a wRC+ better than 140.
I just don't buy this Guardians team and want all the Rays stock. Williams will struggle to get swings and misses, and he can run up the pitch count when he hunts the strikeouts. Give me the Rays for the sweep.
Pick: Rays ML (play to -140)
