The San Diego Padres host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 1, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSMW.
Find my MLB betting preview and Cardinals vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
The Padres have a five-game winning streak going and will want to get back at the Cardinals after losing a series to them last week in St. Louis.
Matthew Liberatore and Nick Pivetta will start tonight for the Cardinals and Padres, respectively.
My Cardinals vs Padres Prediction
- Cardinals vs Padres pick: Under 7.5
My Cardinals vs Padres best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Padres Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
Cardinals vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Matthew Liberatore (SL) | Stat | RHP Nick Pivetta (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-8 | W-L | 10-3 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.0 |
| 4.04 / 4.30 | ERA / xERA | 2.81 / 3.72 |
| 3.55 / 4.08 | FIP / xFIP | 3.17 / 3.57 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 0.99 |
| 13.3 | K-BB% | 20.5 |
| 40.8 | GB% | 34.2 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 101 | Location+ | 110 |
Cardinals vs Padres Preview
The Cardinals lost their last two games against the Miami Marlins without producing a single run. Going back to Monday's game, when they last scored, they're on a 19-inning dry spell.
In July, St. Louis ranked 25th in wRC+ (93), 29th in slugging (.367) and 23rd in average (.234).
The Cards will face the Padres' Nick Pivetta, who has a 1.70 ERA in his last seven starts. In July alone, he had a 0.85 WHIP and a 1.17 ERA.
Pivetta also pitches better at home, with a 2.07 ERA this season at Petco Park compared to his 3.67 ERA on the road.
San Diego's last two games hit the under, and this one might continue the trend.
Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore has better away numbers, with a 3.65 ERA as a visitor.
This aligns with the weather angle offered by Bet Labs, with the under as the recommended pick for tonight.
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity — ranging from 45 to 95 — intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game over rate sitting below 40, suggesting low offensive rhythm.
The market has also subtly corrected, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest, between six and 29.
These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110, Fanatics)
