NL Central rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals (69-68) and Milwaukee Brewers (80-57), open a three-game series on Monday afternoon at American Family Field. First pitch for the opening game on Labor Day is set for 2:10 p.m. ET and this game can be seen on MLB Network or Bally Sports Midwest/Wisconsin. With that, let's get to my Cardinals vs. Brewers prediction.
Cardinals vs Brewers odds for Monday have the Brewers as -166 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 7.5 (-115o / -105u). Freddy Peralta will take the mound for Milwaukee, while St. Louis is set to hand the ball to Andre Pallante.
Cardinals vs Brewers Prediction
- Cardinals-Brewers pick: Under 7.5 (+104 | Play to -105)
My Cardinals vs Brewers pick is on the under, where I see value at a +104 price. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Brewers Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +140 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -166 |
Cardinals vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Andre Pallante (STL) | Stat | RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | W-L | 9-7 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 3.80 / 3.48 | ERA /xERA | 3.70 / 3.79 |
| 3.75 / 3.94 | FIP / xFIP | 4.10 / 3.88 |
| 1.32 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 8.5% | K-BB% | 18.8% |
| 62.1% | GB% | 38.4% |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 95 | Location+ | 98 |
Cardinals vs Brewers Preview
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview: Pitching Anchors Cardinals
Pallante has put together a strong campaign, posting a 3.80 ERA and 1.32 WHIP through 24 appearances on the mound. His underlying metrics are even stronger as the right-hander boasts a 3.48 xERA and ranks in the top half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Entering this matchup in particularly good form, Pallante has surrendered two or fewer runs in four consecutive starts. He is 2-0 over that span with a commanding 2.13 ERA.
Following Pallante is one of the best bullpens in baseball. This season, St. Louis ranks in the top 10 of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
However, run support is certainly not guaranteed. The Cardinals rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Peralta as Efficient as it Gets
St. Louis' hitting woes are likely to continue against Peralta. Through 27 starts, the right-hander is 9-7 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
His analytics are equally dominant as Peralta ranks in the 60th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate. He's been particularly dominant recently, surrendering one or fewer runs in each of his past three starts.
Peralta is 2-0 over that stretch with a ridiculous 0.53 ERA. Following Peralta is a bullpen that ranks second in ERA.
Cardinals vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
There are multiple reasons to like the under in this spot. Both Pallante and Peralta rank in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, both bullpens rank in the top 10 in ERA. Finally, the weather should aid in the under as the forecast calls for winds blowing inward.
Pick: Under 7.5 (+104 at FanDuel | Play to -105)
Moneyline
I'm going to pass on the moneyline. I have no interest in laying -162 on Milwaukee. I also have no interest in backing St. Louis.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also going to pass on the run line. I like the Brewers at -1.5, but would like to see a larger payout than the current +134 tag.
Over/Under
I'm betting Under 7.5 in this game.
Cardinals vs Brewers Betting Trends
- 83% of the bets and 96% of the money are on the Brewers on the moneyline.
- 90% of the bets and 87% of the money are on the over.
- 87% of the bets and 93% of the money are on the Brewers to cover the run line.
Cardinals Betting Trends
- Cardinals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Cardinals are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Cardinals are 29-39 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Cardinals' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Cardinals' 68 last games at home
Brewers Betting Trends
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
- Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Brewers are 37-34 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Brewers' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 35 of Brewers' 65 last games at home
Cardinals vs Brewers Weather
