Padres vs. Giants Odds
| Padres | -115 |
| Giants | -105 |
| Total | 8.5 (-120 / +100) |
| Date | Tuesday, June 20 |
| Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
*Odds via BetMGM as of Monday afternoon.
The second matchup of a three-game series between the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants takes place Tuesday night at Oracle Park.
The Giants won the first game of the series after rallying from a 4-2 deficit in the ninth inning to take the game to extras before scoring three runs in the 10th inning.
Tonight, the Giants will throw Anthony DeSclafani, while Seth Lugo will be on the bump for the Padres.
Our algorithm has identified an edge on a Lugo player prop at BetMGM, and it's expecting the right-hander to have his way against the Giants.
Our models consider quantitative and qualitative factors for every angle of the game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more — to come up with a fair value line for every MLB player prop on the market.
Seth Lugo Player Prop Prediction, Projection
Lugo is a pitcher who has been a mainstay in the MLB since 2016.
He's in his first season with the Padres after seven seasons with the Mets and was in the midst of a resurgence to start the season. Through his first four starts, he boasted a 2.78 ERA. But in four starts since, that ERA has ballooned to 4.10.
His last start against the Royals on May 16 was the worst one yet. He pitched just two innings and gave up five earned runs.
The model indicates Lugo's strikeout total for Padres vs. Giants is way too low. BetMGM has set his strikeout total tonight at 3.5, with -115 to the over and -110 to the under. That is the best price on the over in the market.
Through eight starts this season, Lugo has recorded four or more strikeouts in six of them. One of the games in which he recorded less than four strikeouts was his last start where he pitched just two innings.
The model predicts Lugo will have 5.1 strikeouts against the Giants. That's good enough for a 21% betting edge on the over.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same size unit for each individual bet.
Pick: Seth Lugo Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-115)
