Luis Castillo is the anchor in a loaded Seattle Mariners’ starting pitching rotation. The 31-year-old has been a model of consistency as he logged nearly 200 innings in 2023 and is up to 148 1/3 before his start against the Pittsburgh Pirates today.
His opponent will be Bailey Falter in this matchup. Falter is a lefty, who is due for some negative regression. He rarely strikes anyone out and doesn't keep the ball on the ground, but Seattle has been awful hitting lefties.
Because both relief staffs have enough to back up these two starters, runs could be at a premium.
Continue reading below for my Mariners vs. Pirates prediction.
Mariners vs. Pirates Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 8 -105o / -115u | -166 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 8 -105o / -115u | +140 |
Mariners vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Luis Castillo (SEA) | Stat | LHP Bailey Falter (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-11 | W-L | 5-7 |
| 2.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 3.40/3.76 | ERA /xERA | 4.07/5.15 |
| 3.58/3.76 | FIP / xFIP | 4.43/4.77 |
| 1.16 | WHIP | 1.24 |
| 17.8% | K-BB% | 8.7% |
| 40.3% | GB% | 34.7% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 104 | Location+ | 100 |
Mariners vs Pirates Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Castillo Staying Strong
Castillo owns a 3.40 ERA and 3.76 xERA. He's pitching a little better than expectations, which is rock-solid. He has an Average Exit Velocity of a tick above 89 MPH with a slightly below-average Hard-Hit Rate. His ground-ball rate is league-average, but his strikeout rate is 24.3% against a 6.6% walk rate. Additionally, Castillo has excelled in the second half, so the Pirates are catching him at a bad time.
The Mariners cannot hit lefties well. In the last month, the M’s have a 72 wRC+ with a 10.3% walk rate and 28% strikeout rate. Sure, Falter doesn't miss many bats, but this strikeout rate is abhorrent. They have three active bats above a .320 xwOBA off of southpaws, so as much as Falter is expected to have trouble down the stretch, it may not start here.
The Mariners have a 4.10 xFIP in relief with a 9.2% walk rate and strikeout rate above 26%. They have four arms under the 4.00 xFIP mark, so Castillo has backup if needed. That said, he's made it through six innings in each start since June and I expect that to continue today.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Bucs Facing Several Issues
Falter owns a 4.07 ERA and 5.15 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is just over 90 MPH with a below-average Hard-Hit Rate. He has a below-average ground-ball rate and strikeout rate, but he can limit walks from time to time, so this could be his saving grace. Many Seattle hitters can work the count, but they also miss plenty of pitches, providing a boost to Falter’s value in this matchup.
The Pirates have struggled hitting righties, with a 78 wRC+, 6.9% walk rate and 25% strikeout rate, so Castillo might be able to cruise. Like the Mariners, the Bucs will likely have issues with making contact in this one. Plus, they're facing more of a strikeout pitcher. They only have three active bats above a .320 xwOBA against righties in the last month, so Castillo should mow Pirates’ hitters down with ease.
In relief, the Bucs haven't fared well in the past month with a 4.56 xFIP, 8.6% walk rate, and 20% strikeout rate. They do have three arms under that 4.00 xFIP mark, so basically, Falter has to throw strikes, which he can do against a lineup, which is not all too intimidating to face at this moment, as a lefty.
Mariners vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
This game profiles as a pitching and defensive showcase because these teams have struggled at the dish: Seattle against lefties and Pittsburgh against righties. Castillo should cruise through six-plus, and Falter has a favorable matchup with the Mariners.
The relievers in this game are nothing special but should have just enough to keep this game under the total, once each starter exits the game. Bet the under from 8 to 7.5.
Pick: Under 8 | Play to 7.5 (-115) |
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Moneyline
-166/+140 (No)
Run Line (Spread)
-1.5 Seattle (No)
Over/Under
8 (Yes — Under)
