The Seattle Mariners (68-59) and Philadelphia Phillies (73-53) will face off in the MLB this afternoon. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on ROOT Sports NW.
Philadelphia is a -155 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Seattle is +130 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 8.5 total runs.
Continue below for my Mariners vs Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, August 20, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Mariners vs Phillies Prediction, Picks
- Mariners vs Phillies pick: Phillies Moneyline (-150)
My Mariners vs Phillies best bet is on Philadelphia moneyline, with the best price currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Phillies Odds for Wednesday, August 20
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +130 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -155 |
Mariners vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| SEA Luis Castillo (RHP) | Stat | PHI Jesus Luzardo (LHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-6 | W-L | 11-6 |
| 2.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.5 |
| 3.48 / 4.17 | ERA /xERA | 4.21 / 3.58 |
| 3.93 / 4.13 | FIP / xFIP | 3.12 / 3.38 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.34 |
| 14.6% | K-BB% | 18.7% |
| 40.8% | GB% | 43.3% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 105 | Location+ | 109 |
Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies MLB Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview, Analysis
Seattle's Luis Castillo is due for regression. Despite a 3.48 ERA this season, Castillo possesses a 4.17 xERA.
He also ranks in the bottom third of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. This expected regression has already started to kick in, given that Castillo got shelled in his most recent outing.
In that game, the right-hander surrendered six runs on nine hits in just four innings of work. Following Castillo is a bullpen that is also due for regression.
Entering this matchup, the Mariners' relief corps ranks in the bottom half of the league in FIP, xFIP and WAR.
Additionally, this pitching staff may struggle to receive run support against Jesus Luzardo.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview, Analysis
While Castillo's analytics suggest regression, Luzardo's underlying metrics suggest positive regression. Despite some inconsistent results thus far, Luzardo boasts a 3.58 xERA and ranks in the top half of the league in xBA, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Trending in an opposite direction than Castillo, Luzardo has surrendered three or fewer runs in each of his past four starts. He is 3-1 over that stretch with a 2.52 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.
Not only does Philadelphia possess the pitching advantage, but it boasts the hitting edge as well. This season, the Phillies outrank Seattle in runs scored per game, hits per game, SLG and OPS.
That success at the dish is likely to continue against Castillo. Through 108 combined plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Philadelphia roster boasts a .298 BA, .596 SLG and .398 wOBA.
Mariners vs Phillies Betting Predictions
The only reason that the Phillies are not longer than -136 is that the Mariners possess the bullpen advantage. However, that does not offset the fact that Philadelphia boasts a stronger starting pitcher and lineup.
Citizens Bank Park is also one of the more difficult environments to play in for opposing teams. The Phillies are above .500 at home, while the opposite is true for Seattle on the road.
Mariners vs Phillies Best Bet
- Phillies ML (-150)
