The Dodgers clinched a series victory over the Mariners with a dramatic comeback on Tuesday night, and will now take aim at a much-needed sweep that could grant them a bit more separation in the NL West.
In their way stands Logan Gilbert, who's continued his masterful season with a 1.86 ERA this month, but isn't too far removed from a brutal July. Can the Dodgers get to him and provide stud righty Jack Flaherty with some support?
Let's break down my Mariners vs. Dodgers prediction below.
Mariners vs. Dodgers Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 8 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +125 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 8 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -150 |
Mariners vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| Stat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 7-9 | W-L | 9-5 |
| 3.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.8 |
| 2.96/3.21 | ERA /xERA | 3.06/3.17 |
| 3.28/3.34 | FIP / xFIP | 3.25/2.58 |
| 0.88 | WHIP | 1.01 |
| 20.5% | K-BB% | 27.5% |
| 44.9% | GB% | 42.1% |
| 119 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 101 | Location+ | 105 |
Kenny Ducey’s Mariners vs Dodgers Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Strikeout Struggles Continue for Seattle
This shouldn't be the toughest place in the world for the Mariners to hit. They're firmly a fly ball-oriented team with the fourth-highest rate of contact in the air this season, and only the Great American Ballpark grades out as a friendlier home run park than Dodger Stadium.
Yet Seattle has scored just three runs in this series and hasn't even faced L.A.'s top two healthy arms yet. Now, it will see Flaherty — an elite strikeout arm — as issues with strikeouts persist. Jerry Dipoto has promised for years that the Mariners would work to improve their issues in this department, yet they remain the guiltiest team in baseball and have actually struck out even more over the past two weeks at 28.2%. It turns out bringing in two veterans with waning power who put the ball in the air — one of which sits in the bottom quarter of the league in strikeout rate — has not worked out.
The good news is that Gilbert appears to be resuming normal service. He did yield four runs last time out against the Pirates — one of which was unearned — but he struck out six batters for a third straight start. This has been a nice rebound after he gave up seven runs to the Red Sox to end July, but he's now walked three over his last two outings, which is somewhat notable.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: L.A. Firing on Both Fronts
Flaherty sort of feels like a Skenes-lite with the Dodgers, in that he'll give up some occasional runs but remain unbothered and persist with elite strikeout numbers. He's only grown more dangerous in this area with his new team, bringing his strikeout rate up to 33.3% in three outings, though in a troubling twist his Expected Batting Average has shot up to .270 after sitting under .230 for the entirety of the season.
There's been no drastic change in his batted ball numbers — he's only rolled up slightly fewer grounders on average — and his barrel rate remains on the decline ever since a tough June. It just appears hitters are beginning to square him up better and two starts at hitter's parks in Milwaukee and L.A. certainly haven't helped the cause after he spent most of the year pitching in Detroit — a pitcher's paradise.
It may not matter a whole lot given the Dodgers seem to be picking things up again on offense. They're back in the top 10 of wRC+ over the last two weeks and have shaken off some strange strikeout issues that presented themselves a month ago — and best of all they're healthy once again.
Max Muncy has provided a jolt with a homer in each of his first two games back from injury, Gavin Lux is beginning to hit too frequently to ignore, and after Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts returned to the lineup the Dodgers activated deadline acquisition Tommy Edman off the injured list to further bolster this lineup.
The Dodgers' Isolated Power now sits at .197 over the last 14 days and while they're still not walking at the rates we've grown accustomed to, they've done so in a strong 12.5% of plate appearances during this series, which could be a sign of things to come.
Mariners vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Flaherty has certainly lost a bit of his excellence on contact so far with the Dodgers, but L.A.'s defense has rounded into form at just the right time. After sitting down in the bottom third of the league in Outs Above Average for the season, it has registered 8 OAA this month to sit atop the league.
That should help Flaherty settle in when the ball does come back in play, and his continued ability to limit barrels and hard-hit balls should mean that the defense has plenty of opportunities to help him out. We don't expect an overwhelming amount of contact here at any rate, given the Mariners continue to lead the world in striking out, which should be on full display with the strikeout clip that Flaherty has posted with his new team.
I'm not completely bearish on Gilbert, but there have been some slight issues with walks and home runs creeping in over the last five or so starts, which is generally bad news against a Dodgers team that has historically walked at an elite pace and has returned much of its power. The strikeout totals may look relatively normal for Gilbert, but he's experienced a dip in strikeout rate lately and we've seen that manifest itself in a few tricky outings.
It's hard to doubt the Dodgers offense with the way it's running, and in a dream spot for Flaherty they should jump in front early.
Pick: Dodgers F5 -0.5 |
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Moneyline
This line has truly been all over the place. The Dodgers opened up just shy of -190 on the moneyline before shooting up to -165 early in the betting window, and ever since they've steadily trickled back down towards the opening line.
According to our numbers, 90% of the bets and 84% of the handle is coming in on L.A. to win this one.
Run Line (Spread)
The Dodgers had failed to cash the run line in five straight games before hitting it in each of the first two games of this series and now rank sixth in the league with a 47.5% hit rate on the run line as home favorites this season.
Seattle has now cashed the spread in just one of its last eight games and is just 26-38 to the run line on the road this season.
Over/Under
Similar to the trend we spotted with the run line, the Dodgers have now helped cash the Over in 59.7% of their games as home favorites which ranks sixth in the league.
While you might think this is a spot of contrasting trends given the Mariners' inability to hit and general friendliness to under bettors this season, you should note that the over has cashed in 63% of the 29 games where they've entered as road underdogs. The under has now cashed in just one of their last five games as well.
Still, we've tracked some sharp action on the under, which remains at the opening number of 7.5 runs after a brief move early on Wednesday to eight.
