The San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants on August 19, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Giants vs Padres prediction below with odds, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Giants vs Padres Prediction
- Giants vs Padres pick: Padres F5 -0.5
My Giants vs Padres prediction is on the Padres first five innings run line. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Giants vs Padres Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -119 | 8 -105o / -116u | +178 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -102 | 8 -105o / -116u | -221 |
Giants vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Kai-Wei Teng (SFG) | Stat | RHP Nick Pivetta (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 12-4 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.3 |
| 9.90/4.90 | ERA /xERA | 2.87/3.76 |
| 5.52/6.19 | FIP / xFIP | 3.27/3.80 |
| 1.90 | WHIP | 0.95 |
| 0.0% | K-BB% | 19.5% |
| 35.5% | GB% | 33.1% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 89 | Location+ | 109 |
Kenny Ducey’s Giants vs Padres Preview
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview: Teng Struggles to Translate to MLB
I've got to admit, I'm not quite sure what the San Francisco Giants — a team very much in the mix for the final wild-card spot in the National League — are doing throwing Kai-Wei Teng out on the hill.
Yes, Teng had a magnificent 37.9% strikeout rate in 54 innings down in Triple-A this season, and he's still 26, but walks have always been a killer for the righty and he's allowed a hefty bunch of runs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">homers in years past as predominantly a fly-ball pitcher.
We know that it takes almost everyone a while to translate their strikeouts to the big leagues, and so far in 10 innings we've seen Teng punch out just eight batters to go along with a brutal eight walks. This was the case last year in his limited time in the bigs, though he didn't have quite the same numbers to earn a spot on the major-league roster with an 8.66 ERA down on the farm.
He's managed to post an acceptable .239 Expected Batting Average given he's made two starts in his friendly home park, including one against the Washington Nationals, but it hasn't meant much with the way he's put guys on base via the walk. He's also just a week removed from surrendering seven runs over 1 2/3 innings versus this same Padres team, posting a tough 0:4 K:BB.
Offensively, too, the Giants will need to elevate their level to help out Teng. They've struck out in a whopping 25.5% of their plate appearances in the last two weeks with just a 6.2% walk rate, and while they've still managed a decent .151 Isolated Power, their lack of consistent plate discipline has cost them many times.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Pivetta's Strikeouts Key to Matchup
Nick Pivetta, meanwhile, is a guy with a few discernible flaws but who has been an overall great pitcher near the front of the Padres' rotation. He's managed to clean up his long-standing issues with the walk, coming in well under the league average in the last two seasons, and while he's failed to replicate the incredible strikeout numbers he had from 2023-24 he's still in the top quarter of the league with a 25.9% punchout rate this year.
Now, Pivetta is very prone to the homer like many of these extreme fly-ball and whiff-forward Padres pitchers, and he does have one of the worst barrel and hard-hit combos of any starter. Missing bats has done miracles for Pivetta, however, and it's helped him to a low .232 xBA even though the .429 Expected Slugging is well north of the league average of .406.
The best news, too, is that Pivetta has been getting better as the season's gone on. His xBA once stood around .250, but it's been just a shade over .210 in the last two months. He's also brought the walk rate down, and while the strikeouts have come down as well it's not as if we're in any worrisome territory.
One trend certainly worth noticing is how busy this Padres bullpen has been in the wake of an injury to Michael King and some pure ineffectiveness from their back-end starting options. San Diego used four of their five best relievers to make it through Sunday's loss, and burned Mason Miller for 19 pitches last night.
While San Diego's three biggest horses in the stable have been fairly well-rested in the last four days, their other middle-relief options have been worked to the bone and at least in the last two days, everyone's had to get involved.
Giants vs Padres Prediction, Pick
This is going to be a brutal matchup for the Giants' offense against a high-strikeout arm, and on top of that, they hold a strong preference versus ground-ball pitchers with the third-worst OPS in baseball versus fly-ballers.
It makes sense given many of those guys, such as Pivetta, are heavily focused on hunting whiffs with power pitching, and with the way San Francisco is swinging the bat at the moment, it's in for a real test. Even if it can manage to lift one or two out of the park versus Pivetta, it would seem highly unlikely that enough runners are on base to make an impact.
Pick: Padres First Five Innings -0.5 (-150, Fanatics)
Giants vs Padres Betting Trends
