The Orioles came into the week with a chance to unseat the Yankees and claim first place in the AL East, but that chance now feels like a dream as they're five games behind the Bronx Bombers.
The Orioles fell short in their first two games against the Giants, but hope to get back on track with a win on Thursday. So, let's get to my Giants vs Orioles prediction.
Giants-Orioles Predictions
- Giants-Orioles picks: Orioles Moneyline (-140 | Play to -160)
My Giants-Orioles best bet is on the Orioles moneyline, where I see value at -140. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Giants vs Orioles Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 7 -125o / +105u | +1.5 -175 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-155 | 7 -125o / +105u | -1.5 +145 |
- Giants-Orioles Moneyline: Giants +130 | O's -155
- Giants-Orioles Over/Under: 7 total runs (-125o / +105u)
- Giants-Orioles Spread: Giants +1.5 (-175) | O's 1.5 (+145)
Giants-Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers for Thursday
| RHP Logan Webb (SF) | Stat | RHP Zach Eflin (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-10 | W-L | 10-9 |
| 4.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.0 |
| 3,53/4.36 | ERA /xERA | 3.55/3.41 |
| 3.01/3.28 | FIP / xFIP | 3.60/3.72 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.13 |
| 3.4% | K-BB% | 8.2% |
| 56.9% | GB% | 43% |
| 112 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 104 | Location+ | 107 |
San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles Series Finale Preview
Giants Betting Preview: Logan Webb's Struggles on the Road
The Giants' playoff dreams ended long ago as they're 74-78 on the season. Seemingly nothing has gone right for the Giants as they’ve dealt with injuries and underperformance in a very difficult season.
One of the few constants is Logan Webb, who enters with a 3.53 ERA and a 3.01 FIP over 31 starts. Nothing really changed in Webb’s formula this year, other than getting even better at limiting the home run. Webb is one of the great ground-ball pitchers in baseball, boasting a 56.7% ground-ball rate with a mediocre 7.4 K/9, but an elite 0.51 HR/9.
However, there’s one area in which Webb has struggled — pitching away from the friendly confines of Oracle Park. The 31-year-old has struggled in road games for years, and this year has been more of the same.
He boasts a terrific 2.83 ERA in 15 home starts, but a poor 4.30 ERA in 16 road outings.
San Francisco’s offense has flashed some pop in games against the Orioles, scoring 10 runs on Tuesday and five yesterday. It’s easy to get offensive momentum when leadoff hitter Mike Yastrzemski begins the game with a homer, as he did the past two days.
The recent offensive surge from San Francisco seems to be an outlier. The Giants rank 20th in baseball with an 86 wRC+ in the past two weeks, even with the hot few days boosting the numbers a bit. Typically, I try avoiding offenses that strikeout a ton and don’t draw walks. The Giants' issues in the strikeout and walk departments are glaring as they own a 6.7 BB rate and a 28% K rate — both of which rank bottom four in MLB.
On the flip side, the Giants' offense has been fueled by an elite .170 Isolated power of late. We'll see if the Giants' newfound power is sustainable — or just a hot few games.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Zach Eflin Throwing Well
Although his acquisition didn't get ample media attention at the deadline, Zach Eflin has provided a major boost to a shaky Orioles' rotation.
Eflin leads all Orioles' rotation members with a 2.22 ERA and a 3.42 FIP since getting dealt on July 26th. Similar to Webb, Eflin isn't a strikeout pitcher (8.26 K/9), but is much better at limiting walks with a 1.01 BB/9.
Additionally, Eflin ranks in the 77th percentile in xERA, the 43rd in xBA, the 64th in barrel and the 75th in a hard-hit rate. I'm a big fan of pitchers who don't beat themselves with walks and don't get crushed around the park, so Eflin is quite intriguing to me.
Are we officially at the point where we can call the Orioles' offense mediocre? I think I'm there.
We're looking at two months of mediocre offensive production from Baltimore, a team that ranks 20th with a 95 wRC+ since August 1st. The Orioles have just four starters with a wRC+ above 100 in those two months — Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander and Colton Cowser.
In games where that foursome contributes, Baltimore has a great shot at winning. In games they don't, it'll take a pristine pitching performance to sneak out a victory. The good thing for Baltimore is that Eflin has regularly twirled terrific starts, so maybe the offensive woes won't outweigh the strong pitching in this spot.
Giants-Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-140, Play to -160)
The price has risen a bit since opening at -130, and with a majority of the money coming in on Baltimore, it could go up even more. I'm playing Baltimore at -140 and will play it up to -160.
Moneyline
The majority of the money is on Baltimore's moneyline. In fact, 78% of the bets and 74% of the handle is on the Orioles.
Run Line (Spread)
I already wrote about how bad both offenses have been over the past month, so I don't see any value on either side. I'll pass.
Over/Under
I'm leaning toward the under, which means I'm fading the big money. With 96% of the bets and handle on the over, most people love over 7.5 runs in this game.
While the total is relatively low, it's for a good reason. The game features two pitchers who want to get deep into the contest with a low pitch count against struggling offenses.
Giants-Orioles Betting Trends
- 78% of the bets and 74% of the money are on the Orioles on the moneyline.
- 96% of the bets and 96% of the money are on the over.
- 60% of the bets and 40% of the money are on the Orioles to cover the run line.
Giants Betting Trends
- The Giants are 4-6 in their past 10 games
- The Giants are 32-41 in road games this year
- The Giants are 42-27-4 in favor of the over in road games
- The Giants are 6-4 on the run line in their past 10 games
Orioles Betting Trends
- The Orioles are 3-7 in their past 10 games
- The Orioles are 66-47 as favorites this year and 42-34 at home
- The Orioles are 37-31-8 to the over at home
- The Orioles are 39-37 on the run line at home.
Giants-Orioles Weather Forecast for Thursday
