The New York Mets host the San Diego Padres on September 17, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SNY.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Padres vs Mets Prediction
- Padres vs Mets picks: Under 7.5
My Padres vs Mets best bet is Under 7.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Mets Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +169 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +101 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
Padres vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Nick Pivetta (SDP) | Stat | LHP David Peterson (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-5 | W-L | 9-5 |
| 3.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.3 |
| 2.73 / 3.76 | ERA /xERA | 3.77 / 4.35 |
| 3.33 / 3.78 | FIP / xFIP | 3.35 / 3.60 |
| 0.95 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 20.0% | K-BB% | 12.8% |
| 33.9% | GB% | 55.3% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 109 | Location+ | 103 |
Padres vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
This system targets unders in MLB series games (Game 2 or later) where both teams have winning records, suggesting quality pitching and competitive matchups.
However, public betting leans toward the over — likely expecting fireworks between top teams — which creates contrarian value on the under.
By capitalizing on low public support for the under (≤35%), the strategy fades public perception in favor of market inefficiencies, especially when bettors overestimate offensive output late in a series.
Pick: Under 7.5
