The Miami Marlins host the San Diego Padres on July 26, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MIAM.
The Marlins are favored by -128 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Marlins Prediction
- Padres vs Marlins Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR | Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits
My Padres vs Marlins best bet is Fernando Tatis Jr. to go over his HRR or Hits total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Marlins Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +155 | 8.5 -120o / -100u | +108 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -189 | 8.5 -120o / -100u | -128 |
- Padres vs Marlins moneyline: Padres +108, Marlins -128
- Padres vs Marlins over/under: 8.5 (-120o / -100u)
- Padres vs Marlins spread: Marlins -1.5 (+155 ), Padres +1.5 (-189)
Padres vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| RHP Walker Buehler (SDP) | Stat | RHP Janson Junk (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-5 | W-L | 4-6 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 5.23/4.37 | ERA / xERA | 5.09/4.24 |
| 4.37/4.33 | FIP / xFIP | 4.61/4.43 |
| 10.7% | K-BB% | 10.5% |
| 46.1% | GB% | 43.3% |
| .305 | BABIP | .292 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 98 | Location+ | 109 |
Padres vs Marlins Pick, Betting Analysis
The Marlins will host the Padres on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at LoanDepot Park in Miami.
Janson Junk gets the start for Miami, while Walker Buehler starts for the visiting Padres, so it’s no surprise that I expect plenty of runs in this matchup — both starting pitchers enter this game with ERAs over 5.00.
My primary betting angle will be targeting Fernando Tatis Jr., who is on an absolute tear after an abysmal start to the season.
Junk throws his four-seam about 34% of the time, but it’s not a very effective pitch (98 Stuff+, 13% whiff rate). He’s not going to overpower hitters, but he’s more of a weak-contact specialist.
Tatis hunts for fastballs early in the count with a very aggressive approach centered on driving pitches via excess weight on his back leg that generates a ton of power through his swing motion, allowing him to make heavy contact through the baseball.
Despite Tatis having posted career-low slugging metrics over the first two months of the 2026 season, the Padres’ slugger is now one of the hottest hitters in the game, with the three-time All-Star having just smoked a baseball 477 feet for a homer at Coors Field this past Monday.
Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR | Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits
